XRP, Retail Investors' False Hope in a Boxed Range... "If $1.3 Breaks, It's Over"

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

XRP is trapped in a narrow boxed range, losing direction and moving sideways.

According to an FXStreet report on May 4 (local time), XRP maintained a slight upward trend around the $1.40 mark as of Monday. The current price has not broken out of the range between the $1.30 support and $1.40 resistance levels. This reflects a weakening of investor sentiment in both digital investment products and derivatives. Demand for derivatives remains sluggish. According to CoinGlass data, Monday's futures open interest averaged $2.5 billion. This contrasts sharply with the July peak of $10.94 billion. Retail investors' skepticism about whether the upward trend can be maintained in the short and medium term persists.

XRP spot ETFs also show signs of waning interest in related products. Last week, a total of $35,210 in outflows occurred. According to SosoValue data, cumulative inflows are $1.29 billion. The average net asset value remains at approximately $1.06 billion. The stagnation of institutional capital inflows is hindering a price rebound.

From a technical perspective, XRP is trading at $1.39, consolidating just below the moving average resistance zone. The short-term direction is leaning towards neutral to bearish. The 20-day Bollinger Band midline, converging at the same level as the 50-day exponential moving average located at $1.41, sits above the price. The upward momentum is being suppressed at the upper end of the recent volatility range.

Momentum indicators are mixed. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slightly declined into negative territory. This suggests a lack of conviction regarding direction after the recent rebound.

On the upside, the primary resistance level is the 50-day exponential moving average near $1.41. Above that, the upper Bollinger Band near $1.47 awaits. A break above this zone would encounter a more formidable barrier at the descending trendline breakout point near $1.50. The 100-day exponential moving average at $1.50 further strengthens this medium-term resistance. A decisive breach of this resistance opens the way for a rally to the 200-day exponential moving average at $1.74. Conversely, the primary downside support is the lower Bollinger Band near $1.36. If the daily candle closes below this level, sellers would regain control, triggering a deeper price correction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*