Bitcoin Breaks $80,000 in 3 Months... But a $1.3 Billion Bomb Awaits

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Dasol Ko

Bitcoin has once again surpassed $80,000 in three months, but behind this rise, a liquidation risk of $1.35 billion looms, pushing the market into a 'critical zone' that will determine its direction.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 4 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $80,635 during intraday trading, marking its highest level since January 31, and is currently trading around $80,261. This surge is considered a technical breakout, recovering the 'bull market support zone' with strong buying momentum, but its foundation is analyzed to be unstable due to the excessive leverage structure in the derivatives market.

The key variable the market is particularly watching is the $77,965 level. If this price level breaks, approximately $1.35 billion worth of long positions could be forcibly liquidated, whereas if it breaks above $80,835, short positions liquidated would only amount to about $383 million. Due to this asymmetric structure, which is about 3.5 times, analysis suggests a higher possibility of a short-term downward 'liquidity hunt'.

Indeed, the market showed extreme sensitivity to geopolitical risks on this day. When reports emerged that Iran attacked a US Navy vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin sharply dropped from $80,000 to the $78,000 range, resulting in approximately $450 million in liquidations within 24 hours and losses for over 110,000 investors. Although the price rebounded after the US military denied the attack and news of de-escalation spread, it confirmed the market's vulnerability to significant swings caused by a single news event.

In terms of supply and demand, both positive and warning signals are appearing simultaneously. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for five consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of $2.44 billion in April alone, and cumulative inflows reaching $58.5 billion. At the same time, whale investors have accumulated an additional 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, and exchange holdings have decreased to their lowest level in seven years. Conversely, a structure where futures demand increases while spot demand decreases has emerged, raising warnings of a 'leverage-driven rally' pattern similar to the early stages of past bear markets.

Technically, whether Bitcoin breaks above $82,000 is considered a key turning point. This level coincides with the 200-day moving average and major resistance. A clear daily breakout could open up room for further ascent to $83,000, $84,500, and then to $92,000-$98,000. Conversely, if it fails to break through, there is a high possibility of testing the $75,000 support level after passing through the $77,965 liquidation zone. The market is currently maintaining an upward trend, but the closing price movements over the next 48-72 hours are identified as a key variable in determining whether this rally is a 'true breakout'.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*