Whales sweep up $300 million in 96 hours, will they lead Ethereum to break $2,400?

▲ Ethereum (ETH) Whale ©

As whale investors quietly swept up a massive volume of $322 million in just four days, Ethereum's fierce struggle to break through the strong resistance wall of $2,400 is escalating market tension to its peak.

According to investment media TradingNews on May 4 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,350, repeatedly attempting to break through the $2,400 ceiling. While the price is stuck in a dull sideways range, the underlying on-chain data points to the calm before a storm. Large investors, or whale wallets, accumulated an astonishing 140,000 units over the past 96 hours. This is interpreted as a strategic accumulation by smart money, viewing the $2,300 to $2,350 range as an attractive low-price buying opportunity, rather than a mechanical fund movement.

This bottom-building, combined with short squeezes (buying pressure resulting from the liquidation or covering of short positions) in the derivatives market, is maximizing upward pressure. In the liquidations that occurred over the past 24 hours, the ratio of short positions was an astounding 3.7 times higher than long positions. Technical trends are also positive. The 14-day Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is 59, indicating no overbought burden, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also maintains a clear buy signal, representing solid upward momentum.

Institutional funding, which had paused for a moment, has reopened. On May 1 alone, a total of $101.2 million flowed into Ethereum spot ETFs, reversing the sentiment. BlackRock's ETHA absorbed $43.2 million, and Fidelity's FETH absorbed $49.4 million, showing a concentration of funds towards large funds. This demonstrates that institutional investors are using virtual assets not merely as speculative instruments but as a refuge to hedge against macroeconomic risks, even amidst geopolitical crises in the Middle East.

However, despite the positive signals, caution persists. While other assets are making strides, with the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) conquering the $80,000 mark and $81.59 million flowing into XRP (Ripple)-related exchange-traded funds in April, Ethereum has not been able to overcome its relative weakness. To regain market dominance, the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio must strongly break through 0.032. Furthermore, there is a lingering concern that the current rally might be an artificial surge lacking genuine spot demand, posing a risk of a deep plunge if the $2,300 support level collapses.

Ultimately, the decisive trigger for the future direction will be the US April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, to be released on May 8 local time. If the job market is confirmed to have slowed, expectations of interest rate cuts will push down the dollar's value, likely causing Ethereum to instantly break the $2,400 resistance and head straight for $2,500. Conversely, if employment figures heat up, a painful pullback below $2,200 will be hard to avoid. All technical and on-chain signals are holding their breath, awaiting Friday's macroeconomic report.

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