Bitcoin, from war risk to Fed appointments... "The real crisis starts now"

▲ 비트코인(BTC)/AI 생성 이미지

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $80,000 mark and entered a correction phase due to escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and increased policy volatility surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair.

Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis stated in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on May 4 (local time) that Project Freedom, initiated by President Donald Trump, is stimulating risk-off sentiment in the market. President Trump deployed US warships and fighter jets to lift the logistical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and news of a warship being attacked near the Iranian coast caused Bitcoin's price to drop from $80,000 to $78,500. President Trump characterized this action as a "humanitarian effort," warning that "any interference will be met with force."

Looking at technical indicators, the key to Bitcoin's short-term direction is whether it can maintain support at the 20-day moving average, which is around the $76,500 level. Ethereum (ETH) is facing downward pressure, having failed to rebound six times at the $2,400 resistance level. Davis analyzed that if Bitcoin fails to maintain the lower support line of its current channel, further price correction will be inevitable.

The confirmation vote for Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, scheduled for May 11, is a variable that could reverse market sentiment. Warsh is considered a dovish figure who previously valued Bitcoin as "new gold," and if he is ultimately confirmed, the prevailing prediction is that aggressive interest rate cut policies will be implemented. This could lead to a decline in the dollar's value and inject liquidity into the virtual asset market, driving an upward rally.

In corporate trends, Strategy, a proxy investment vehicle for Bitcoin, is leading the market by attempting to break through its 200-day moving average. Ethereum also appears to be consolidating energy, anticipating a golden cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on its daily chart. Davis predicted that if military conflicts in the Middle East do not escalate into full-scale war, policy expectations will lead Bitcoin to re-establish itself at the $80,000 level.

Given this period of high volatility, investors need risk management, including limiting leverage to less than 5x and securing cash reserves. A surge in international oil prices due to geopolitical crises could fuel global inflation concerns, posing a burden on the virtual asset market as well. Market participants must respond nimbly to real-time geopolitical changes and policy announcement schedules.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*