Schwartz: "XRP, over 1% chance of reaching $100"

▲ XRP/AI generated image

A claim that XRP has a greater than 1% chance of breaking past $100 due to its long-term technical structure has reignited debates surrounding extreme price predictions.

The Crypto Basic reported on May 5 (local time) that cryptocurrency investor and analyst Patrick L. Riley countered the skepticism of David Schwartz, Ripple's former Chief Technology Officer, by asserting the possibility of XRP reaching a three-digit price. Schwartz had previously stated that XRP was unlikely to reach $10,000 within the next 10 years, arguing that if rational wealthy investors truly believed such a prediction, XRP would already be trading around $20.

Riley believes Schwartz's cautious stance underestimates XRP's long-term price potential. He argued that XRP has a much greater than 1% chance of surpassing $100, and that the current market does not properly reflect its long-term structural growth potential. The case of Schwartz previously viewing Ethereum (ETH)'s upside potential as less than 1% and then selling his holdings at approximately $1.05 was also mentioned.

Riley's argument is based on long-term technical charts. He analyzed that XRP has been moving within an ascending channel since 2014, consistently forming higher lows. XRP has repeatedly formed a triangular convergence structure before major surges, and this pattern was observed in the 2018 cycle and the mid-2025 period, he explained.

Riley believes that if XRP continues to follow the upper boundary of its long-term ascending channel, there is still room for exponential growth. In his scenario, XRP would need to rise by over 7,000% to reach $100. He argued that while this does not mean it is an easy target, the long-term structure is too strong to dismiss the possibility as less than 1%.

xAI's Grok prediction was also mentioned as supporting data for this outlook. The Crypto Basic reported that Grok estimated the probability of XRP reaching $100 within the next 10 years to be approximately 20%. This model cited Schwartz's existing view that an increase in XRP's price could lower payment costs, along with the expansion of the overall virtual asset market, as key justifications.

However, conservative forecasts were also presented. The Crypto Basic reported that prediction platforms like Telegaon project XRP reaching $100 between 2041 and 2050. While Riley's analysis emphasizes a long-term upward trajectory, Schwartz's perspective prioritizes market realities and investor behavior, clearly distinguishing the two viewpoints.

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