XRP ETF Fund Inflows, Can it Break Through the $1.45 Resistance Wall? CLARITY Act in Focus

▲ XRP ETF/ChatGPT Generated Image ©

Institutional funds are once again flocking to the XRP (Ripple) ETF market, but the $1.44-$1.45 resistance wall has emerged as the biggest hurdle for a price rebound.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 5 (local time), the cumulative net inflow into XRP ETFs has exceeded $1.29 billion, with total net assets estimated at $1.4 billion. Volatility Shares XRP ETF (XRPI) traded at $7.91, up 1.09% for the day, and Rex-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) rose 0.96% to $11.54. The underlying asset, XRP, traded at $1.4161, up 1.59%.

Supply and demand have also improved recently. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.87 million on Monday, and the total net inflow for April was $81.63 million, marking the largest monthly inflow in 2026. This trend fully recovered the $31.16 million net outflow in March. In particular, Bitwise took the lead in the ETF market with cumulative inflows of $425.61 million, surpassing Canary Capital's $421.86 million.

However, the reason why the price cannot break out strongly is also clear. The media pointed out that approximately 36.8 billion XRP are concentrated in the $1.44-$1.45 range. This accounts for about 60% of the total circulating supply, creating a structure where break-even selling and profit-taking could pour out whenever the price approaches this level. While the cumulative ETF inflow of $1.29 billion is significant, it is insufficient to absorb this resistance wall, estimated at approximately $53 billion, in the short term.

The market environment is also mixed. Bitcoin (BTC) dominance hit 60.66%, its highest since April 2021, and the altcoin season index stood at only 37. This indicates that funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin, and a full-fledged rotation into altcoin ETFs, including XRP, has not yet widely spread. XRP derivatives Open Interest (OI) has slightly recovered to $2.54 billion, but it is still significantly lower compared to its peak of $10.94 billion in July 2025.

Fundamental burdens also remain. XRPL settlement volume plummeted 90% from its peak in February 2026, and Alphractal Delta growth rate, which indicates new fund inflows, remained in a deep negative range at -111.7. Technically, XRP is hovering around the 50-day exponential moving average of $1.41 from $1.4161, but the 100-day line at $1.51 and the 200-day line at $1.74 are still above it. If the $1.36-$1.40 support level breaks, the risk of a decline to $1.30 could increase.

Ultimately, the next direction for XRP ETFs hinges on the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, and whether it can break through $1.45. The media believes that if the Senate review schedule proceeds positively before May 21, additional funds could flow into XRPI, XRPR, and Bitwise XRP products. Conversely, if the $1.44-$1.45 resistance wall is not overcome, the price is likely to remain range-bound despite improved ETF supply and demand.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*