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▲ Solana (SOL)/AI Generated Image ©
While Solana (SOL) is trapped in the $84 range, institutional-grade catalysts, such as the launch of tokenized stocks and stablecoins, are fueling expectations of a re-break above $100.
According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on May 5 (local time), Solana was trading at $84.92, down 0.54% from the previous day. The intraday price range was tightly compressed between $84.05 and $84.99, with a 7-day return of 0.48% and a 1-month return of only 2.76%. However, 3-month returns were recorded at 38.89%, and 6-month returns at 152.83%, suggesting that the recent trend is closer to a period of re-establishing a base after a peak rather than a continuation of the uptrend.
Technically, the $84-$87 range is a short-term decisive battleground. Solana remains below the 50-day exponential moving average of $86.10 and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of $86.67. A strong break above this resistance is necessary to test $92.11, $94.05, $98.53, and eventually the psychological resistance of $100. Conversely, if $84 breaks down, downside risks could open up to $77.12 and, more deeply, to $67.50.
From a chart perspective, the symmetrical triangle compression is key. The lower boundary is rising around $70, and the upper boundary is falling around $97, indicating decreasing volatility. The outlet suggested that if Solana breaks above the upper trendline in the $85-$90 range, the likelihood of retesting $97 and breaking $100 increases, with $125 potentially being discussed as a medium-term target. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 48.08, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is 8.7, indicating that trend confirmation signals are still weak.
From a fundamental perspective, the expansion of institutional infrastructure is considered the biggest catalyst. Western Union launched the USDPT stablecoin on the Solana blockchain through Anchorage Digital Bank. Additionally, Securitize, in collaboration with Jump Trading and Jupiter Exchange, plans to introduce a Solana-based tokenized stock trading platform. This platform boasts 24/7 trading, instant settlement, fractional ownership, and decentralized finance integration, and is regarded as a catalyst for expanding Solana into a settlement infrastructure for traditional financial products, rather than merely a speculative chain.
Supply and demand indicators also showed some signs of recovery. According to SoSoValue, Solana spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $3.28 million on Monday, marking the first positive flow since April 23. The long/short ratio, based on CoinGlass, stood at 1.12, the highest in about a month. Furthermore, MoonPay's $100 million acquisition of DFlow, Coinbase's routing of approximately 60% of Solana spot trading volume through DFlow, and Defidevcorp's $200 million Solana accumulation program were also presented as factors supporting medium-term supply and demand expectations.
However, bearish factors are also significant. Solana is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with the 200-day SMA at $116.79, significantly higher than the current price. The termination of services by Lifinity and Magic Eden was interpreted as a signal of slowing DeFi and NFT activity in the Solana ecosystem. The outlet suggested that a limited bullish outlook is possible as long as $84 is maintained, but a break above $86.50 would be an additional buy signal, and a close above $90 would be a confirmation signal opening the path to $96, $100, and $125. Conversely, if Solana closes below $84, it would signal a shift to a wait-and-see approach, and a breakdown of $77.12 would increase the likelihood of retesting $70 and $67.50.
According to CoinMarketCap, the price of SOL at the time of reporting was $86.80, up over 3% in 24 hours.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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