Not politics, but liquidity! Arthur Hayes' Bitcoin surge theory

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Arthur Hayes once again brought up his liquidity-centric theory, asserting that “what drives Bitcoin’s price is not politics or regulation, but money printing.”

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on May 8 (local time), Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Maelstrom, argued at the ‘Consensus Miami 2026’ event that the key variable for Bitcoin (BTC) price is the global fiat currency supply.

Hayes stated, “How much fiat currency exists today, how much more will be issued in the future, and how quickly money is printed determines Bitcoin’s fair value and future price.” He added, “The more money is issued in the US and globally, the higher Bitcoin’s value will be relative to fiat currency,” emphasizing, “The real driver of BTC price is liquidity, not politics.”

According to the outlet, Hayes believes that while Bitcoin has been swayed by macro variables this year, such as the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and ETF fund flows, it is ultimately moving within a larger monetary expansion cycle. He also pointed out that market participants are over-interpreting political and regulatory issues.

In particular, Hayes also showed a step back from his past prediction of Bitcoin reaching $500,000. He said, “When did I ever nail down $500,000? My predictions are constantly changing,” and added, “My current target price is closer to $125,000.” He further stated, “All Bitcoin needs to go up is more money printing.”

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $81,527, which is its highest level since January this year, but approximately 35% lower than its all-time high of $126,000 recorded at the end of 2025. Hayes also took a critical stance on the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, arguing that “Bitcoin’s value comes from its existence outside the regulatory framework.”

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