Bitcoin, up 37% but still uneasy..."Beware of 20,000 BTC profit-taking"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 37% since April 2026, the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant assessed this rebound as a rise within a broader bear market phase. While some market experts interpreted this rebound as a sign of a new bull market, CryptoQuant's unrealized profit data showed that it has not yet approached bull market levels.

NewsBTC reported on the 13th, citing an analysis by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, that Bitcoin holders' profit-taking has increased to its highest level in three months. Bitcoin surpassed $81,000 on May 5th and rose to $82,000 on May 6th, but subsequently met resistance in that range. This marked the first time Bitcoin reached the $82,000 level since late January 2026.

Moreno stated that Bitcoin holders recorded a maximum of 14,600 BTC in realized profits on May 4th alone. This is the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. Net profit over 30 days also exceeded 20,000 BTC. He analyzed that these figures support the possibility of investors taking profits, which could increase Bitcoin price volatility.

Moreno categorized the recent movement as a “bear market rally,” despite Bitcoin having risen over 20% since early April and trading around $80,000. He explained that the recent price increase stemmed from eased macroeconomic pressures and an undervalued state that persisted from January to March 2026. He also cited a surge in perpetual futures demand as a factor supporting Bitcoin's price.

However, Moreno suggested that a significant portion of this buying interest was likely driven by leveraged traders rather than new spot accumulation. While social and whale investor sentiment remains in the fear zone, price scores and volatility indicators are showing greed signals. This was interpreted to mean that the price movement itself is driving the rally, rather than a genuine shift in investor sentiment.

Although Bitcoin's 30-day realized profit exceeded 20,000 BTC, Moreno pointed out that it is still a significant difference from the 130,000 BTC to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in a bull market. He stated that while perpetual futures demand continues to increase, spot demand and exchange inflows are weaker than expected. He assessed the current trend as a rally accompanied by a significant risk of correction, but one that has not yet reached a definitive distribution peak.

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