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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image
As Bitcoin (BTC) climbs back above $80,000, the price structure observed in the 2017 and 2021 cycles is once again drawing attention. Bitcoinist reported on the 12th, citing analysis from crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, that Bitcoin is creating a similar pattern to the fakeout structure that appeared in the middle of the past two bull markets.
Merlijn analyzed that in both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin rebounded above a horizontal support zone, then fell back below that zone, creating a fakeout. At the time, traders who had taken positions based on that support line were forced to stop out, but that movement was not the end of the bull run. Bitcoin subsequently reversed direction and began a rally towards new all-time highs.
The core of this analysis is that the recent recovery above $80,000 might not be a definitive bullish signal, but rather a final trap before a larger expansion. Merlijn suggested the possibility that Bitcoin might be forming a similar structure in 2025. According to his outlook, the next move could be a sharp drop below the support line, followed by an immediate return into the trading range.
If Bitcoin creates another bearish trap, the price could drop to the green support zone, shaking out weak holders. During this process, the market might mistakenly believe that a deeper bearish reversal has begun. Bitcoinist reported that Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in this scenario.
However, the bullish scenario holds true if Bitcoin quickly recovers that support zone. As Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,000, this price level is acting as a technical baseline for determining the sustainability of the recovery.
Although Bitcoin settled above $80,000 on a weekly closing basis for the first time since January, the market is not entirely out of the danger zone. A move above $82,000 would strengthen the bullish argument and open up possibilities for further gains. Conversely, a drop below $78,000 could initiate a bearish path.
Merlijn's final outlook leans bullish. If Bitcoin follows the patterns of 2017 and 2021, a parabolic rise similar to the past could be replayed, according to his analysis. He believes the current structure could eventually lead Bitcoin to new price highs above $242,000. Bitcoinist reported that Bitcoin was trading at $80,790 at the time of writing.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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