XRP, will it exceed $1.50 within May? Looking at prediction market probabilities

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image ©

As XRP (Ripple) maintains the $1.40 level, prediction market investors reportedly view a breakthrough to $1.50 within May as the most likely scenario.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Finbold on May 13 (local time), traders on the decentralized prediction market Kalshi projected a 78% probability of XRP exceeding $1.50 in May. The likelihood of breaking $1.60 was tallied at 37%, while the probability of rising above $1.70 was 16%, and breaking $1.80 was around 11%.

However, the market remains cautious about the possibility of breaking $2. According to Kalshi data, the probability of XRP surpassing $1.90 within May was only 7%, and the chances of breaking the psychological resistance levels of $2 and $2.10 were each estimated at 6%. The outlet reported that short-term investor sentiment continues to show high volatility, with prediction market probabilities surging on May 11 and then quickly adjusting downwards.

Market analysis indicates that XRP's price movement has mirrored the overall cryptocurrency market trends in recent months. However, the network's intrinsic growth continues steadily. XRP spot ETFs have attracted over $1.3 billion in cumulative funds since their launch at the end of 2025, which is interpreted as a signal of expanding institutional demand.

Regulatory expectations were also cited as a factor supporting investor sentiment. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, in mid-May, and the market is paying attention to the potential for increased XRP adoption if regulatory clarity expands. Finbold explained that regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP has significantly eased since the lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was resolved in 2025.

XRP was trading at $1.42 at the time of writing, down less than 0.3% on a daily basis. On a weekly basis, it recorded a decline of approximately 0.5%. Currently, XRP is moving within a $1.40-$1.50 range, and the outlet analyzed that a stable breakthrough of the $1.45-$1.50 resistance zone could open up the possibility of a short-term rise above $1.70. Conversely, maintaining the key support level of $1.38 was added as important.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*