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Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting a rebound, touching the $76,000 mark, but on-chain data shows 'distribution risk,' a sign of massive sell-offs by whales, raising warnings that this might be just a temporary rebound in a bear market.
According to investment specialized media FX Leaders on May 14 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) is currently facing strong selling pressure around $76,800, which has acted as a powerful resistance level in the bear market and is also the 'trader realized price.' CryptoQuant, a virtual asset data analytics firm, reported that Bitcoin inflows to exchanges recently surged to 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since December last year. Particularly, the proportion of large deposits within the total inflow jumped from less than 10% to over 40% in just a few days, suggesting that institutional investors are ready to sell near the resistance level.
Indeed, the movements of whales are unusual. The average deposit size is 2.25 BTC, the highest since July 2024, and a continuous stream of whale transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC is flowing into major exchanges like Binance. This suggests that the trend is not driven by individual investors but by large funds and major players adjusting their positions for a full-scale exit (fund recovery). Last Wednesday, daily realized profit reached $500 million, which is still below the $1 billion threshold for significant profit-taking, indicating that current profit realization activities are in their early stages.
Experts predict that the moment Bitcoin surpasses the $76,800 resistance level, realized profits will exceed $1 billion, triggering a strong selling spree. This is because holders who bought between $65,000 and $76,000 are now in profit, and their desire to realize gains is at its peak. Already since the fourth quarter, spot ETF fund flows have turned to net selling, and even 'dolphins,' medium-sized wallets holding 100-1,000 BTC, are reducing their holdings, further solidifying the bear market structure.
Technical indicators are sending short-term bullish signals. After closing above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last week, it recorded an additional 6% gain this week. The Golden Cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the upward trend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest the possibility of a chart-based rebound. However, Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant reconfirmed that on-chain indicators show we have already entered the early stages of a bear market, analyzing that even if the charts look impressive, it is likely a 'bear market relief rally' where smart money is actually exiting.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently engaged in a fierce tug-of-war around $76,800, which is the average purchase price for traders. If this price is breached, traders will enter profit territory, potentially triggering a massive sell-off. If it fails to break through, it could suppress potential sell-side pressure and lead to a prolonged sideways movement. With a 52% drop from its all-time high of $126,000, whether this rebound is a signal of true recovery or the last escape opportunity before a deeper correction depends on whether it can settle above the $76,800 mark.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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