"Polymarket declines, Kalshi on the rise"...April crypto market shakes up prediction market landscape

▲ Prediction Market/ChatGPT Generated Image

In the cryptocurrency market, the structure of prediction market trading, the performance of Bitcoin-holding companies, and discussions on US regulatory bills are simultaneously in flux, drawing investors' attention to major platforms and congressional procedures.

Cointelegraph reported on May 14 (local time) that Polymarket's monthly trading volume in April decreased compared to the previous month, and Japanese listed company Metaplanet significantly increased its operating profit through Bitcoin (BTC) option revenue but recorded a large loss due to valuation losses from the decline in Bitcoin prices. In the US Senate, over 100 amendments were submitted to a key cryptocurrency bill, bringing ethical provisions and stablecoin revenue restrictions to the forefront.

According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket and US-based trading applications recorded over $10.2 billion in trading volume in April. This is a decrease of approximately 8.9% from over $11.2 billion in March, marking the first time monthly activity has declined from the previous month since August last year. In contrast, competitor Kalshi's trading volume in April increased by approximately 13% to $14.8 billion. The total monthly trading volume for prediction markets also increased by approximately 12.4% from $26.5 billion in March to $29.8 billion in April.

Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed company Metaplanet recorded an operating profit of 2.27 billion yen and net sales of approximately $19.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. The operating profit margin reached 73.6%, with Bitcoin revenue-generating businesses, including Bitcoin option premiums and derivatives valuation gains, accounting for most of the sales. Sales increased from approximately $5.5 million in the same period last year to approximately $19.5 million, while the hotel business continued to make a small but stable contribution.

However, Metaplanet recorded an ordinary loss of approximately $728 million due to non-cash valuation losses resulting from the decline in Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin's price fell by approximately 24% during the first quarter, from about $87,000 on January 1 to about $66,000 on March 31. This resulted in strong operating performance alongside significant losses as the book value of the company's expanded Bitcoin holdings decreased.

In the US Senate Banking Committee, over 100 amendments were submitted to the cryptocurrency market structure bill ahead of its markup on Thursday. While the details were not fully disclosed, stablecoin revenue, protection for crypto software developers, and ethical provisions were identified as key discussion points. Democratic Senators Jack Reed and Tina Smith introduced amendments to strengthen the prohibition of stablecoin revenue, while Senator Chris Van Hollen proposed an ethics provision to restrict the holding, promotion, and association of cryptocurrencies by the President, Vice President, senior officials, members of Congress, and their families. The bill aims to divide jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies among US market regulators, and the House passed a related bill, named the Clarity Act, in July last year.

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