Dogecoin, 58,400% Surge Signal Appears...Bottom Theory Surges as Fisher Transform Turns Bullish

▲ Dogecoin(DOGE)

Dogecoin's (DOGE) monthly Fisher Transform indicator has turned bullish again, reigniting long-term bottom signals that appeared just before past major rallies.

NewsBTC reported on May 14 (local time) that Dogecoin's monthly Fisher Transform indicator turned bullish, citing an analysis by trader Cantonese Cat. According to the chart published by Cantonese Cat on X (formerly Twitter), Dogecoin hovered around $0.1146 after several months of decline from its 2024 high, and the Fisher line turned upwards from a deeply negative area.

The Fisher Transform is a technical indicator that converts price movements to a near-normal distribution to capture potential reversals or significant price changes. Generally, if the Fisher line crosses above the signal line after an oversold period, it is interpreted as a bullish reversal. However, as this signal appears on a monthly chart, it is closer to a slow trend reversal indicator than a short-term buy signal. Cantonese Cat stated, "It could consolidate longer, but it depends on how impulsively liquidity moves," adding, "Even if it's slow, if it has bottomed out, it's fine."

Past instances support a cautious bullish view. When a similar macro reversal signal appeared in 2019, Dogecoin closed around $0.0018 in early February and then rose to $0.00437 by the end of that year. This was a rebound of about 143% from the low, but it was not the explosive surge that the market often imagines. It was more of a recovery from a prolonged suppressed price level.

The 2020 signal was much stronger. Dogecoin fell to $0.00125 in mid-March 2020, during the broader market liquidation caused by COVID-19, and then hit an all-time high of $0.7316 on May 8, 2021. The increase from the March 2020 low to the May 2021 high was approximately 58,400%, over a period of about 14 months. The key point is that the bottom signal appeared much earlier than the peak of the speculative frenzy.

The 2022 cycle shows a similar structure. Dogecoin formed a bottom at $0.04908 on June 18, 2022, and subsequently rose to $0.4825 by December 2024. This represents an increase of approximately 883% from the low over about 2 years and 6 months. While there was a rebound at the end of 2022 within this period, the overall recovery was more of a cumulative structure that lasted longer than a one-month surge.

The current signal is evaluated as being closer to a bottom formation phase than a definitive breakout. NewsBTC reported that this bullish turn in the Fisher Transform should be viewed as a momentum reset signal rather than a price target. Past bullish reversals did not prevent long-term consolidation, and Dogecoin's major rallies occurred when a technical bottom met sufficient liquidity and risk appetite, transforming into sustained demand.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*