Bitcoin, Was the $80,000 collapse a coincidence?...Looking at on-chain data

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

After surpassing $82,000 at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily fell below $79,000 yesterday before recovering to around $80,000. CryptoPotato reported on May 14 (local time) that this sell-off was not random but a result of three pressures acting simultaneously.

According to on-chain technical analyst Easy On Chain, warning signs were appearing even before the price drop. On May 11, exchange withdrawals plummeted to 19,995 BTC. This figure is significantly below the early May range of 28,000-35,000 BTC and lower than the daily average of 25,600 BTC during that period.

Such a reduction in exchange withdrawals means that fewer coins are moving out of exchanges. CryptoPotato explained that this creates a structure where the potential supply for selling remaining on the platform increases rather than decreases. Easy On Chain viewed this as a positive net inflow, analyzing that this trend weakened the market's ability to absorb downward pressure.

The derivatives market also reflected the decline in advance. From May 8 to 10, open interest increased to 1.04 times the average of the analysis period, and funding rates turned negative and deepened further by May 10. This was interpreted to mean that traders were actively building short positions, betting on a decline.

As selling pressure actually materialized, liquidations of leveraged long positions surged. Easy On Chain stated that on May 12 alone, the volume of long position liquidations was 11.8 times that of short position liquidations. Over three days from May 11 to 13, approximately $109.7 million worth of long positions were forcibly liquidated, which was identified as a major driver of this sharp decline.

The third pressure was the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). CryptoPotato reported that with growing inflation concerns, the release of these indicators provided a selling trigger for traders.

Another analyst, Carmelo Alemán, linked this movement to concentrated whale selling. According to Alemán, wallets holding 1,000-10,000 BTC sold approximately 7,650 BTC during the decline. Based on an average price of $80,500, this amounts to roughly $616 million.

During this period, Bitcoin fell from approximately $81,000 to below $79,000, and open interest increased by about $590 million. This signals that new leverage entered the market while the price was falling.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin remained about $300 below $80,000, having fallen by about 2% in the last 24 hours and a similar amount in the last 7 days. It had risen by about 7% over 30 days but was more than 23% lower year-on-year and more than 36% below its all-time high of around $126,000 recorded in October 2025.

Easy On Chain believes that for Bitcoin to recover to $82,000 again, two signals must be confirmed: exchange net inflow must turn negative again, indicating a resumption of withdrawals, and the liquidation pressure on leveraged long positions must also cool down.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*