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▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Rise/AI Generated Image
An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is simultaneously forming a combination of macro and technical indicators resembling the early stages of past bull markets, shifting market attention from short-term corrections to the possibility of a mid-term cycle reversal.
Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, claimed in a video uploaded on May 25 (local time) that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have entered a data range similar to past major bottoms. He explained that his proprietary Bitcoin Risk Model currently points to 27, and historically, when Bitcoin was at the same level, its price was higher 80% of the time after three months and 99% of the time after one year. However, he drew a line, stating that the model is not a tool for predicting future prices but rather a statistic showing results observed under similar past conditions.
The first macro indicator Gambardello highlighted was Copper/Gold. He analyzed that while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum for Copper/Gold had weakened for an extended period since April 2021, it has recently shown a strong breakout. He also explained that Copper/Gold is testing its 20-month moving average, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is breaking above its signal line and forming a green histogram. Gambardello emphasized that a similar trend was observed in November 2020 when Bitcoin entered its previous bull market.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Russell 2000 were also presented as grounds supporting the possibility of a bull market transition. Gambardello explained that the PMI, which indicates economic expansion and contraction based on manufacturing surveys, shows a strong correlation with Copper/Gold. He observed that the Russell 2000 had been trapped in a long-term trading range since 2021 but recently entered a price discovery phase. This trend led to the analysis that the prolonged underperformance of altcoins and Ethereum (ETH) was linked to an economic cycle contraction.
Gambardello also assessed recent concerns about accelerating inflation as being closer to a short-term shock caused by the Middle East war and surging energy prices. He believes that once the war ends and oil prices fall, the market can again confirm a disinflationary trend. He explained that if increased AI investment leads to a productivity boom and the PMI shifts to an expansionary phase, a favorable environment for risk assets across the board could form. He argued that while the Bitcoin spot ETF narrative drove Bitcoin's rise after 2022, a full-fledged bull market where altcoins and small-cap stocks move together could emerge when PMI expansion aligns with a technical breakout from the bottom.
A diagnosis also emerged that Bitcoin's monthly chart is showing signals similar to past bottoms. Gambardello viewed the shift of the monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram from dark red to light red as a key reversal signal. He explained that in 2015, 2019, and 2022, this signal coincided with Bitcoin's bottom, and at those times, the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic RSI were also in oversold territory. Historically, the time it took for Bitcoin to recover its 20-month moving average after this signal was approximately 245 days in 2015, 89 days in 2019, and 243 days in 2022. Gambardello concluded that while the current market is not yet in a stage of confirmed immediate surge, macro indicators, technical indicators, and risk models are simultaneously forming a structure resembling the early stages of a bull market.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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