"Bitcoin Enters Historic Bear Cycle, Bear Market to Last Until Next Year"...CryptoQuant CEO Warns

▲ Bitcoin Bear Market ©

The digital asset market is freezing as an analysis from a prominent figure suggests that Bitcoin (BTC), which was engaged in a fierce struggle near its all-time high, could enter an unprecedented long-term slump amid unexpected on-chain data warnings and geopolitical crises. The head of a cryptocurrency data analysis firm pointed out that the current indicators perfectly match the precursor symptoms of past major downturns, warning that this decline might not be a simple correction but the beginning of a long-term bear market that could last for several years. Amid escalating concerns about the US's aggressive tightening and a deepening global liquidity crunch, market experts are issuing pessimistic outlooks, stating that buying interest is unlikely to recover for the time being.

According to the cryptocurrency media CoinGape on May 29 (local time), Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant, strongly warned via his social media that BTC's decline could extend until early 2027. Citing the PnL Index chart, which tracks investors' profits and losses, CEO Ju explained that typically, after large-scale profit-taking cascades, investors' profit and loss indicators follow a downward curve for about 18 months. Given that this trend reversal officially began in October 2025, the diagnosis is that the recession cycle dominated by selling pressure could continue until early 2027.

Indeed, CryptoQuant's PnL Index signal shows a reversal after peaking in 2025, which chillingly aligns with the peak patterns of 2014, 2018, and 2022 that triggered historical long-term bear markets. CEO Ju assessed that the trend could only reverse if a structural change occurs where unrealized profits increase and realized profits decrease, but the current market shows no such signs of recovery. The sharp decline in this indicator, calculated based on a 365-day moving average, has precisely coincided with periods during major downtrends when prices repeatedly fell, and investors' profitability plummeted to its worst levels.

This grim warning comes as BTC price precariously holds the $73,000 mark amid macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. According to CoinGlass data, BTC continued to trade around $73,289 after a slight decline in the last 24 hours, but stress in the derivatives market is intensifying. The total open interest in the futures market has shrunk to approximately $55.26 billion, and liquidations over 24 hours amounted to a staggering $223.9 million. Notably, over $30 million was forcibly liquidated from long (buy) positions alone, directly impacting investors who expected a rise, while short (sell) position liquidations amounted to only $17 million, indicating that downward pressure is dominating the market. However, the long-short ratio on major exchanges like Binance and OKX still maintains a buying advantage.

The status of the leading digital asset in the global asset market is also significantly shaking. According to CompaniesMarketCap data, BTC's total market capitalization has fallen to approximately $1.46 trillion, significantly dropping in the rankings of major global technology companies and commodity assets. While gold, boasting an overwhelming value of about $31 trillion, firmly holds its position as the world's top asset, global giants such as Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Broadcom, Saudi Aramco, Tesla, and Meta Platforms are all valued higher than Bitcoin.

The fundamental background for this decline in value is the worst geopolitical setback: armed conflict between the United States and Iran. Recent news of military strikes has plunged global financial markets into fear and severely dampened risk-asset investment sentiment across the cryptocurrency market. Adding to this, the inflation shock of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 3.8% year-over-year in April has led to a surge in the probability of further Fed interest rate hikes, causing funds to massively exit risky assets due to concerns about liquidity depletion.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*