If $80 Breaks, Straight to $60? Solana Market Tension at its Peak

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

Solana (SOL) has entered a critical juncture regarding the $80 support line. Amid a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance and Bitcoin's weakness weighing on the overall market, a strong rebound could occur if Solana recovers to $97.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on May 29 (local time), Solana is currently trading around $82, showing an intraday gain of approximately 1.5%. Its market capitalization is estimated at around $47 billion, with over 577 million SOL in circulation. The report analyzed that Solana has been moving within a 'Falling Wedge' pattern during its recent decline, and whether it defends the $80 level will be a key variable determining future trends.

Technically, $80 holds more significance than just a support line. The media noted that Solana successfully staged a short-term rebound after testing the lower bound of the wedge earlier this year, but has not yet confirmed a trend reversal. $87 and $90 are considered short-term resistance levels, with the key resistance at $97. If this level is broken on a closing basis, there could be room for an ascent to the $110-$120 range, with $116 suggested as a major target price. Conversely, if $80 is breached, a sharp drop to $60 is also a possibility.

Institutional supply and demand flows are mixed. Solana spot ETF assets under management are currently estimated at approximately $1.02 billion. In particular, the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF is attracting institutional funds by offering a staking yield of around 7%. However, Goldman Sachs fully liquidated its Solana ETF positions in Q1 2026, while Morgan Stanley, conversely, expanded its exposure by approximately $29.9 million through the Bitwise Staking ETF. The media concluded that Solana's outlook is highly divided even among institutional investors.

In the derivatives market, a clear deleveraging trend was also observed. Solana futures open interest plummeted by approximately 30% from $2.75 billion to $1.9 billion in May. This indicates that excessive leveraged positions have been unwound, but it also signals a contraction in market risk appetite. However, the network's fundamentals are still considered strong. Solana recorded approximately $1.4 billion in protocol revenue, 32 million daily active wallets, an average of 1,054 transactions per second (TPS), and decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume of approximately $1.5 trillion. Stablecoin supply was $14.8 billion, and memecoin trading volume was $482 billion.

From a regulatory perspective, classification as a digital commodity is considered a long-term positive. The media explained that this classification provides legal clarity for institutional capital inflows and the expansion of staking products. However, the hacking of the Drift protocol in April, which resulted in approximately $1 billion in damages, is still pointed out as a risk factor. The media assessed that while Solana possesses one of the strongest fundamentals in the cryptocurrency market, it is not free from the influence of Bitcoin's trend and macroeconomic variables in the short term.

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