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▲ Dogecoin (DOGE)/ChatGPT generated image
Dogecoin (DOGE) has fallen to a level below the average purchase price of its holders. However, the lack of buying interest from whale investors is shaking confidence in a rebound.
According to crypto media outlet NewsBTC on May 29 (local time), Alphractal analyzed that Dogecoin is showing typical signs of valuation pressure, but stronger whale support is needed to confirm a bullish turnaround. Dogecoin recently traded at $0.099, with a market capitalization of $15.48 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $1.06 billion.
Dogecoin maintained its position as the 9th largest asset by market capitalization, but its returns were generally sluggish. It rose 2% in the last 24 hours but fell 5.96% over 7 days, 4.28% over 30 days, 30.82% year-to-date, and 54.39% over one year. Alphractal noted that with a whale-to-retail delta of -0.2464 and a whale-to-retail ratio of 0.8963, large investors are not leading the upward movement.
Alphractal stated, “While funding is only 0.01%, indicating that leverage is not overheated, a negative whale-to-retail delta means large investors are less aggressive than smaller participants, which weakens the quality of bullish positioning.” Dogecoin's exchange holdings amounted to 28.26 billion DOGE, approximately $2.77 billion, increasing by 0.45% over 7 days. Alphractal assessed this trend as a moderately negative signal, given that sellable supply is not actively moving into long-term storage.
Dogecoin's realized price was $0.12929, with the spot price 22.99% lower than the average holder's purchase price. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) was 0.7754, and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) was -0.2897, leading to an analysis that it is in a capitulation zone. Alphractal remarked, “The precise figures indicate capitulation-like holder conditions, sluggish trend strength, and limited broad user participation. The clearest conclusion is that while Dogecoin appears cheap relative to the average holder's purchase price, it is not yet structurally strong.”
The technical structure also leans bearish. Dogecoin traded 13.46% below its 200-day moving average, and the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still pointed to bearishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered around 40 in both 24-hour and weekly timeframes, indicating sluggish momentum. Dogecoin moved below its 12-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, and was only 1.37% above its 100-day moving average. Open interest increased by 0.57% in 24 hours to $907.32 million but decreased by 7.82% over 7 days, indicating that the long-term trend remained weak.
On-chain value transfer improved, but participation did not follow. Adjusted transfer volume increased by 32.52% in one day and 57.64% over 7 days, reaching $213.59 million. However, active addresses decreased by 3.90% daily and 3.36% weekly, and the number of transactions also fell by 8.37% over 7 days. NewsBTC reported that while Dogecoin is priced below the average holder's purchase price, whale signals are not strong enough to confirm a sustainable recovery.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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