Bitcoin Plunges 11% in Two Weeks, But Are There Rebound Signals?...Is the Sell-Off Exhaustion Zone Nearing?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 11% in the past 14 days, facing selling pressure simultaneously in the futures, spot, and ETF markets, but stablecoin liquidity and signs of selling exhaustion leave open the possibility of a short-term rebound.

According to the cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist on May 30 (local time), crypto analyst Maartunn diagnosed in a recent market analysis that the decline in Bitcoin's price is not just a simple short-term correction but reflects a fragile structure created by the simultaneous exit of multiple market participants. Bitcoin has fallen by a net 3.45% over the past month and continued its downward trend since mid-May after facing resistance several times in the $82,000 range.

Maartunn stated in an X (formerly Twitter) post on May 29, "Bitcoin has fallen 11% in the past 14 days," adding, "the selling pressure is not only evident in the price." He explained that aggressive selling by futures traders, reduced exposure from US spot investors, and accelerated ETF outflows are simultaneously being observed.

According to CryptoQuant data, selling pressure in the derivatives market has risen to its highest level since March, and net taker volume has fallen to minus $948 million. Sellers outpaced buyers by an average of approximately $40 million per hour, which was interpreted as continuous pressure rather than a one-time sell-off.

Bearish signals also appeared in the US spot market. On-chain metrics showed Coinbase trading at a 0.21% discount compared to Binance, and a negative Coinbase premium indicated stronger selling pressure from US-based investors. Institutional investors also showed outflow trends for two consecutive weeks recently, with approximately $1 billion flowing out of the iShares Bitcoin Trust just last week.

However, Bitcoinist did not completely rule out the possibility of a short-term rebound. Maartunn analyzed that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is rising, increasing stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin's market capitalization, and net taker volume is also approaching typical levels of selling exhaustion. Bitcoinist reported that such extreme selling environments have been observed in past local bottoming periods.

Caution prevailed in assessing a long-term recovery. Past Bitcoin cycle bottoms after halving events formed approximately 889 days after the halving in 2016 and about 925 days in 2020, but the current cycle is only about 768 days after the halving. Bitcoinist stated that while Bitcoin could see a short-term relief rally, the market may still be in a broader correction phase rather than a clear macro bottom.

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