"Is it over if $71,400 is successfully defended?"...Bitcoin, is it starting to break $100,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Gold/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is rebounding from the short-term holder defense line, aiming to reclaim $78,200, but there's also an increased risk of a drop to the $50,000 range if the bear flag breaks down.

According to crypto media outlet Cointelegraph on May 31 (local time), Bitcoin rebounded from a key on-chain support area, drawing bullish attention back to the $78,000 range. The article states that Bitcoin rallied approximately 2.5% over the weekend, reaching $74,000 on Sunday, with the rebound starting near $72,500.

According to Glassnode data, the realized price for investors who held Bitcoin for 3 to 6 months was approximately $71,400. Analyst Marcus Corvinus described this area as Bitcoin's “strongest short-term support.” Corvinus stated, “This group of investors is still in profit, so they have a strong incentive to defend this price level.”

Corvinus set the next upside target at $78,200. This price level aligns with the realized price of 3-to-6-month holders, a level that bulls surrendered during the market crash in October 2025. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin reclaims this cost basis, the scenario of breaking $100,000 by year-end could resurface.

Since 2017, after Bitcoin broke above the 3-to-6-month holder cost basis, it has achieved stronger returns in longer timeframes. Following similar breakouts, Bitcoin rose an average of 2.3% after 30 days, 21.9% after 90 days, and 36.6% after 180 days. Based on the $74,000 vicinity, the 1-month target is approximately $75,700, the 3-month target is $90,200, and the 6-month target is $101,100. The hit rate for the same signal increased with duration: 54.2% after 1 month, 66.7% after 3 months, and 79.2% after 6 months.

However, the technical structure still calls for a cautious approach. Bitcoin has been moving near the lower trendline of a bear flag after a sharp drop from its 2026 high of approximately $98,000. If a rebound continues in this area, the $90,000 vicinity, where the upper boundary, the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement line, and the 3-to-6-month holder cost basis converge, becomes a key upside target. Conversely, if the daily closing price falls below the lower trendline, a bearish breakdown will be confirmed, opening up the possibility of further decline to the $50,000 to $60,000 range.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*