Bitcoin, 15.8 Million BTC Held Tight, So Why Is It Falling? ...Demand Gap Warning Light

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holdings reached an all-time high of 15.8 million BTC. However, the price has fallen, bringing an uncomfortable signal of insufficient demand to the forefront of the market, rather than strong conviction.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet NewsBTC on May 31 (local time), crypto analysis page XWIN Research Japan announced that Bitcoin long-term holders reached a new milestone of 15.8 million BTC. This record comes during a bearish period where Bitcoin's price has fallen 9% after peaking at approximately $82,000 on May 6.

XWIN Research Japan analyzed this structural anomaly in a CryptoQuant QuickTake post on May 30. Bitcoin long-term holders refer to investors or addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. They are generally less reactive to short-term price fluctuations and are interpreted by the market as a group demonstrating long-term conviction.

An increase in long-term holders means a larger proportion of investors with a low propensity to sell. Even when short-term holders exit the market, a high proportion of long-term holders creates structural resilience. However, XWIN Research Japan analyzed that a healthy bull market is formed when new entrants or other market participants absorb the holdings of long-term holders. While the increase in long-term holders is a sign of conviction, the recent price decline can also be interpreted as meaning there isn't enough new demand to drive a rally.

A slowdown in demand across investor groups was also confirmed. XWIN Research Japan explained that the growth of whale investors holding 1,000-10,000 BTC has stalled and is trending downwards year-over-year. Additionally, the growth of dolphin addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC has also slowed since early 2025. NewsBTC reported that this group largely includes institutional investors and ETF issuers.

XWIN Research Japan noted that while existing investors' conviction remains, broader market signals point to a lack of demand rather than selling pressure. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin could remain in a demand recovery phase until institutional capital inflows, whale accumulation, and network participation revive. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $74,000, having fallen 3.45% weekly and 3.95% monthly.

According to CryptoPredictions data, analysts expect Bitcoin to close June at approximately $71,102. The expected high for June was approximately $84,961, and the expected low was approximately $57,774. While the all-time high for long-term holders carries a positive signal of easing selling pressure, the pace of price recovery could be limited if new demand does not revive.

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