Interest Rate Freeze at 99.3%...Cryptocurrency 'Shaken' by US Employment, Global Prices, and Regulatory Bills

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This week, the cryptocurrency market has entered a critical juncture where its direction will be determined by three variables: US employment indicators, global inflation, and the US cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY Act).

According to CoinGape, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on June 1 (local time), the cryptocurrency market is simultaneously monitoring US economic indicators, statements from Federal Reserve officials, and inflation announcements from major countries this week. The market believes that various indicators could influence interest rate expectations, liquidity, and risk asset preference.

The greatest attention is focused on US labor market indicators. Market participants anticipate that the US unemployment rate will not significantly decrease from 4.3%, and employment growth will slow slightly compared to before. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private sector employment, Challenger job cuts, and weekly initial jobless claims will also be released. Although recent US initial jobless claims increased to 215,000, it was assessed as not a sharp deterioration.

Employment indicators are key variables that can sway future Fed policy expectations. Strong employment data raises concerns about entrenched inflation, while weak indicators can boost expectations for future monetary easing. Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures were also cited as market burdens. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index surged to 3.8%, and analysts predict that the Fed could implement a 100bp interest rate hike by 2027 amidst a US-Iran conflict.

Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on June 17, the CME FedWatch tool reflects a 99.3% probability that the benchmark interest rate will be frozen in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. The market will look for hawkish or dovish signals in statements from Fed officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Michael Barr. If a hawkish sentiment is confirmed, it could be a burden on the cryptocurrency market.

On the regulatory front, the US cryptocurrency market structure bill also faces an important hurdle this week. In the first week of June 2026, the US Senate will reconvene after a recess, and attention will be on whether bills whose adjustment discussions have not been finalized will be included in the schedule. Experts believe that if this bill is included in the Senate's tight schedule, the cryptocurrency market could react positively.

Outside the US, inflation indicators from the Eurozone and South Korea are of market interest. The Eurozone's preliminary annual inflation rate forecast was presented as 3.4% from the previous 3%, and the core inflation rate is expected to rise from the previous 2.2% to 2.4%. South Korea's May annual inflation rate is projected to increase to 2.9% from last year's consensus of 1.9%. The market plans to check the direction of monetary policy in major countries by reviewing the European Central Bank (ECB)'s inflation expectation survey and statements from officials.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*