'Here' breaks, 10% plunge?…Bitcoin, warning of fall to $66,798

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is barely defending the $72,754 support line, but a warning has been issued that if this level is lost based on the 8-hour candlestick closing price, it could fall by an additional approximately 10% to $66,798.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on June 1 (local time), Bitcoin has been experiencing a precarious trend around $73,300 after breaking down from a head and shoulders pattern on the 8-hour candlestick chart on May 28. The downside target for this pattern is set at $66,798, which represents an approximately 10% drop from the broken neckline.

Bitcoin fell below the support lines of $73,998 and $73,769 near the neckline, respectively. However, it is still holding the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $72,754. BeInCrypto views this price level as a critical turning point separating a limited sideways range from a deeper decline.

Although a bearish pattern was confirmed, selling pressure did not explosively continue. While selling volume increased during the pattern breakdown on May 28, both bullish and bearish candlestick volumes have since decreased, indicating weakened market participation below the neckline. BeInCrypto analyzed that the increased wait-and-see sentiment, rather than aggressive sell-offs, enabled buyers to defend the support line.

On-chain indicators confirmed accumulation by long-term holders. According to Glassnode, the Hodler Net Position Change increased from approximately 38,056 BTC to about 40,309 BTC since May 29. This represents an increase of approximately 6%, meaning that even after the pattern breakdown, medium-to-long-term holders opted to acquire more coins rather than sell them.

Leverage in the derivatives market has also decreased. Bitcoin's open interest fell from $34.45 billion on May 14 to approximately $30.4 billion, reaching a low level in recent weeks. The funding rate shifted from -0.009% to 0.002%, showing weak optimism, but overheating strong enough to create significant directional movement has not yet appeared.

If Bitcoin closes an 8-hour candlestick below $72,754, a downward path could open up to $71,310, then $69,470, and finally to the head and shoulders target price of $66,798. Conversely, to reverse the bearish trend, it must first recover $74,783, then successively overcome $76,039 and $78,068. The current market, with diminished trading volume and reduced open interest, is betting its short-term direction on whether $72,754 can be defended.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*