'Plummeted' to 48% Chance of Passage...US Crypto Market Structure Bill, Senate Vote 'Completely Halted'

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Pressure from the banking sector surrounding the US cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY) is intensifying again. The debate over prohibiting stablecoin yields is shaking up the Senate voting schedule, leading to a weakening of expectations for the bill's passage.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Coingape on June 21 (local time), banking groups are continuing to contact lawmakers regarding the stablecoin yield provision of the US cryptocurrency market structure bill. Previously, the banking sector had demanded a broad prohibition on yields.

Eleanor Terrett, a cryptocurrency journalist, reported via X (formerly Twitter) that discussions on stablecoin yields with senators at state banking association meetings are being intensively covered. Coingape interpreted this move as renewed pressure from the banking sector.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, had also stated his intention to oppose the stablecoin yield provision after the bill passes the review stage. Terrett reported that the related issue is still “very much alive.” She explained that the voting dynamics could change as senators outside the relevant committee look more closely at the bill.

Currently, Senate Republicans are focused on finding common ground with Democrats on ethics and DeFi issues. The next steps also include merging with the text from the Agriculture Committee. Coingape reported that the Senate has less time to schedule a floor vote on the bill before the August recess.

Expectations for the bill's passage have also decreased. According to Polymarket, the probability of US President Donald Trump signing the US cryptocurrency market structure bill this year has dropped to 48%. This is a significant decrease from the peak of 74% when the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill out of the review stage in early May.

Galaxy Digital also lowered its likelihood of the bill passing this year from 75% to 60%. Schedule pressure was cited as the key reason. However, Trump's crypto advisor Patrick Witt expressed confidence that Congress could pass the bill by July 4.

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