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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH)/AI generated image
Observations suggest that while $1.9 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire on July 3rd, the market impact is likely to be limited.
According to crypto media outlet CryptoPotato on July 3rd (local time), approximately 31,000 Bitcoin option contracts are set to expire on this day, with a notional value estimated at about $1.9 billion. This expiry marks the first Bitcoin option expiry event in the second half of 2026, but its smaller scale compared to last week's large quarter-end expiry suggests it will have a limited impact on the spot market.
The put-call ratio for these Bitcoin options was 0.7, indicating a relatively higher proportion of call positions compared to put positions. The max pain price was approximately $61,000, close to the current spot price. It was mentioned that some contracts might enter profit territory at expiry.
According to Deribit, open interest is most concentrated at the $80,000 strike price, totaling $1.1 billion. Conversely, about $900 million in open interest remains at the $60,000 strike price. Coinglass data shows that Bitcoin options open interest across all exchanges has decreased to $26 billion since last week's large expiry, marking a 16-month low.
Derivatives firm Greeks Live stated, "The skew for short-dated options continues to account for most of the downside premium reflected in Bitcoin option prices." Greeks Live added, "Option positioning is predominantly driven by short-term risk management rather than a comprehensive reassessment of long-term outlooks." This indicates that the market is more focused on managing short-term volatility than making directional bets.
Approximately 134,000 Ethereum (ETH) options are also set to expire on the same day. Their notional value is $228 million, with a max pain price of $1,650 and a put-call ratio of 1.3. Total Ethereum options open interest across all exchanges is approximately $3.6 billion, the lowest level since January 2023. The combined notional value of Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto options expiring is estimated at approximately $1.8 billion.
The spot market showed an overall upward trend on Friday, with the total market capitalization climbing to $2.2 trillion. Bitcoin rose to $62,000 during Thursday's trading session after weaker-than-expected US employment figures were released, before pulling back to around $61,500 on Friday morning in Asia. Ethereum recovered to $1,700 with a 6% daily gain, and market activity is expected to be relatively limited ahead of the long US weekend.
[Article Summary]
-Approximately 31,000 Bitcoin options, with a notional value of about $1.9 billion, are set to expire on July 3rd.
-The max pain price for Bitcoin options is approximately $61,000, and total open interest has fallen to $26 billion, a 16-month low.
-Approximately 134,000 Ethereum options are also expiring, but market activity is expected to be limited ahead of the long US weekend.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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