XRP (Ripple), 12-Year Worst Loss Period...Buy or Trap?

▲ XRP (XRP)/AI Generated Image

XRP has entered its deepest loss period in its 12-year history. Currently, technical buy signals and bearish warnings are clashing head-on.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on July 3 (local time), the average return for XRP investors has entered an unprecedented period of pain in the token's 12-year history. Santiment data shows a Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) of -45% for 30 days and -47% for 365 days. This structure means both short-term and long-term holders are incurring losses simultaneously.

Santiment stated, "If the crypto market downturn continues, prices may fall further, but from a risk-reward perspective, the strategy of buying or adding XRP now comes with much lower risk than average." This explains that significant downward pressure has already been absorbed by other investors. Santiment added, "The best buying opportunities often appear when the public experiences maximum pain in terms of on-chain data and investor sentiment."

However, not all analyses point only to a bottom signal. Some market observers noted that XRP is showing a similar pattern to the March phase, and the trend of falling below the 20-week exponential moving average after a cycle high has historically acted as a bearish signal. Crypto analyst ChartNerd analyzed, "A relief rally is possible from the $1 low, but the overall trend is still downward."

Hopes for a rebound emerged from technical indicators. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that the SuperTrend indicator gave a buy signal for XRP for the first time since mid-June. The previous SuperTrend buy signal appeared before a 14% increase, and the same indicator also has a record of previously detecting 19% and 16% drops in advance.

In terms of price structure, XRP needs to convincingly recover $1.10 for a short-term rebound scenario to gain strength. Bearish observers believe that a recovery to $1.35, where the 20-week exponential moving average is located, is necessary to confirm a trend reversal. Conversely, if selling pressure continues and key support levels around $1 falter, there is a risk of falling below $0.90.

[Article Key Summary]

-XRP has entered the most extreme loss period in its 12-year history, with a Market Value to Realized Value of -45% for 30 days and -47% for 365 days.

-Santiment diagnosed that buying risk could be lower than average in a period where investor pain is maximized.

-Despite the SuperTrend buy signal, XRP needs to confirm recovery of $1.10 and $1.35 to escape the bearish structure.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*