Quantum Computers, Will They Really Destroy Bitcoin… What is the 'Doomsday' Predicted by the Latest AI?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency security, quantum computer/AI generated image ©

Amidst a heated debate over whether the destructive computational power of quantum computers threatens the long-term security of digital assets, a latest artificial intelligence (AI) model has provided specific guidelines for when Bitcoin's (BTC) cryptographic system might collapse, drawing significant market attention. Theoretically, a highly advanced quantum computer equipped with Shor's algorithm could derive private keys from public keys in a matter of hours, thereby neutralizing Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC).

According to cryptocurrency specialized media Finbold on July 4 (local time), OpenAI's latest AI model, 'ChatGPT-5.5', analyzed that considering the current level of quantum superposition technology, the probability of Bitcoin's cryptography being broken within this decade is less than 1%, virtually close to zero. However, it warned that the risk will gradually increase over time, potentially reaching 5-10% by 2035 and 50-70% by 2045 for the network to be breached. If Bitcoin does not undergo its own upgrades thereafter, the likelihood of hacking will become very high.

The media highlighted, based on specific figures, that the pace of quantum hardware expansion is more challenging than anticipated. Progressing from hundreds or thousands of noisy qubits to millions of error-corrected physical qubits, which are essential for decryption, requires a massive engineering leap. Current systems still need several more years to demonstrate large-scale fault tolerance.

Nevertheless, recent Glassnode data indicates that approximately 6.04 million BTC, accounting for 30.2% of the total supply, could be exposed to risk with the emergence of powerful quantum computers. Despite this, experts emphasize that if reliable threat signals are detected, blockchain developers will initiate migration to quantum-resistant signatures, and while such a transition may take several years, it is technically feasible.

When asked about the most plausible specific timeline, the AI model pointed to 2042 as the arrival of the first quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin's current signature scheme. This is a somewhat more optimistic stance than that of Google's quantum researcher Craig Gidney, who predicted the advent of the risk between 2030 and 2035, depending on advancements in error correction technology.

Rather, this analysis is closer to the prediction of Blockstream CEO Adam Back, who stated that quantum computers would not pose a serious threat for at least 20 years. While some in the industry experienced heightened tension earlier this year, with Jefferies reportedly liquidating Bitcoin positions due to quantum computing threats, the prevailing assessment is that there is ample time to respond with long-term containment strategies and technological advancements rather than immediate doom.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*