Prediction Market, Said to Benefit from World Cup... 45,000 Markets Have 'Zero' Trading Volume

▲ Prediction Market, World Cup, Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH)/AI Generated Image

While Polymarket is fueling the prediction market's trading frenzy with the World Cup special, it has been revealed that over 45,000 closed markets had no trading volume at all.

According to BeInCrypto, a cryptocurrency media outlet, on July 3 (local time), a CNBC analysis showed that approximately 70% of markets closed on Polymarket from 2021 to the end of May 2026 had reported trading volumes of less than $10,000. This means that the total market's money was concentrated in a few large contracts, leaving many markets in a liquidity vacuum.

CNBC extracted data on closed markets from Polymarket's Gamma API. This API calculates the nominal trading volume for both sides of a trade. The analysis revealed that less than 10% of closed markets recorded trading volumes between $100,000 and $1 million. Over 45,000 markets had no trading volume at all, accounting for approximately 5% of the total.

Joshua Della Vedova, a business professor at the University of San Diego, analyzed that over 80% of the trading volume in small markets with less than $10,000 came from bots. He defined bots as wallets that conducted more than 50 trades per day or more than 1,000 trades in total. These bots earned approximately $1.2 million in markets under $10,000 and about $50.5 million in markets between $1 million and $10 million.

Della Vedova stated, “Bots are making money in all markets. Bots prefer larger markets because they make money on every trade, but they trade across all segments.” The report also stated that Kalshi recorded a significant number of shallow markets based on Dune on-chain data analysis. However, Kalshi's Dune nominal trading volume figures, unlike Polymarket's Gamma API, only reflect one side of the trade.

In contrast, the overall trading volume in prediction markets exploded with the World Cup. According to CryptoRank, the weekly trading volume related to the World Cup on major platforms surged from $65 million on June 1 to $5.4 billion on June 29. It peaked at $5.6 billion during the week of June 22. Kalshi led this increase, and BeInCrypto reported a clear polarization where high-value contracts drive market growth while tens of thousands of markets see almost no trading.

[Key Article Summary]

-Approximately 70% of Polymarket's closed markets had reported trading volumes of less than $10,000, and over 45,000 had no trading volume at all.

-In small markets with less than $10,000 in trading volume, bots were analyzed to account for over 80% of the volume.

-Weekly trading volume in World Cup prediction markets surged from $65 million on June 1 to $5.4 billion on June 29.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*