Tesla (TSLA) · SpaceX (SPCX), divergent July fates... Who will come out ahead?

▲ Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX (SPCX) / AI-generated image

Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) face divergent tests in the July investment arena. Tesla is facing margin pressure ahead of its Q2 earnings announcement. SpaceX is leveraging institutional fund inflows after its IPO to build a short-term advantage.

According to financial media outlet Yahoo Finance on July 3 (local time), Tesla is subject to vehicle margin verification ahead of its Q2 earnings release on July 22. SpaceX, on the other hand, has been attracting investor interest in its launch business, Starlink, and xAI computing divisions since its IPO in June.

Tesla's Q1 revenue was $22.387 billion, an increase of 15.78% year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.41, exceeding market expectations of $0.3481. Automotive gross margin improved from 16.2% to 21.1%.

However, warning signs of demand remain. Revenue from services and other segments increased by 42% to $3.745 billion. Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscribers increased by 51% to 1.28 million. Revenue from the energy generation and storage segment decreased by 12% to $2.408 billion. Days inventory also increased from 22 days to 27 days.

SpaceX has limited earnings disclosure history. However, its securities registration statement presented recent 12-month revenue of $18 billion and a 33% growth rate. Anthropic pays $1.25 billion monthly for the use of Colossus capacity. The Google contract is worth $920 million monthly for using infrastructure related to 110,000 NVIDIA (NVDA) GPUs until mid-2029. This trend led to a forecast of $62 billion in revenue by 2026.

In the short-term battle for July, the momentum is with SpaceX. Polymarket saw a 94% chance of Tesla closing above $320 by month-end. However, the probability of breaking $400 was only 30.5%. The price most likely to be reached in July was $360, with a 56.5% probability. The media pointed out that Tesla is burdened with a 389x price-to-earnings ratio and vehicle margin pressure.

The conclusion is clear. Tesla possesses investment appeal in physical artificial intelligence with Robotaxi, Optimus, and Megapack. However, the short-term trend until the end of July suggests that SpaceX is stronger, driven by fund inflows immediately after its IPO, the narrative of launch exclusivity, Starlink's growth, and the expansion of xAI computing.

[Article Key Summary]

-Tesla faces vehicle margin pressure as a key variable ahead of its Q2 earnings announcement on July 22.

-SpaceX is raising expectations for institutional fund inflows, driven by its launch business, Starlink, and xAI computing divisions after its IPO.

-The media judged SpaceX to be more dominant than Tesla in short-term stock price movements until the end of July.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*