"Full of positive news"...XRP (Ripple), will it recover after a shocking 70% drop from its peak?

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While Ripple accumulated positive news in terms of regulation, institutional adoption, and commercialization, XRP plummeted 70% from its peak in one year. The market reflected macroeconomic shocks and selling pressure from early holders rather than Ripple's achievements.

According to crypto media outlet Benzinga on July 3 (local time), XRP rose to $3.65 in July 2025 and is currently trading at a level 70% lower than its peak. During the same period, Ripple signed institutional contracts. It also achieved regulatory victories. Inflows into XRP spot ETFs also continued.

The starting point of the surge was after Donald Trump's election as US President. XRP soared from $0.49 to $3.39 within weeks of Trump's election. Investors front-ran the shift in regulatory stance. Subsequently, whenever positive news emerged, the price jumped first. At the time of confirmation, selling pressure flooded in.

Behind the decline were three macroeconomic shocks. China's tariff announcement in October 2025 wiped out $19 billion in crypto leveraged positions in a single day. In 'Black Sunday II' in February, futures liquidations amounted to $2.2 billion. In this process, 335,000 traders suffered losses. Subsequently, US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran liquidated $100 million in crypto long positions in just 15 minutes.

Institutional positive news also failed to absorb selling volume. Deutsche Bank integrated Ripple's payment network. Aviva Investors embarked on fund tokenization using the XRP Ledger. Société Générale launched a Euro stablecoin on the XRP Ledger in the same week. However, the price reacted more sensitively to macroeconomic fear and risk-off sentiment than to Ripple's fundamentals.

Structural problems also emerged. Ripple's partnerships did not directly translate into XRP demand. Open USD is an independent structure with over 140 partners, including Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and BlackRock (BLK). The XRP Ledger can be used as one of several options. Benzinga pinpointed this as a key reason for the divergence between XRP's price and Ripple's business performance.

Currently, XRP is testing a one-year downtrend line that has persisted since its peak in July 2025. This trend line has prevented all rebounds over the past 11 months. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed its third bullish divergence signal. Previous signals in November 2025 and February 2026 led to rebounds of 40% and 80%, respectively. However, the analysis suggests that XRP's decline stems not from Ripple's business collapse but from macroeconomic shocks, selling by early holders, and pressure in the Bitcoin (BTC)-centric altcoin market.

[Article Summary]

-XRP fell 70% from its July 2025 peak despite Ripple's institutional contracts and positive regulatory news.

-China's tariff announcement, Black Sunday II, and Middle East military shocks fueled leveraged liquidations and risk-off sentiment.

-Ripple's partnerships did not fully translate into direct XRP demand, and selling pressure from early holders also suppressed price rebounds.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*