Polymarket "Bitcoin (BTC) Has a 21% Chance of Reclaiming $70,000 in July"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered to the $62,000 range, Polymarket investors see a low 21% chance of it reaching $70,000 within July.

According to crypto news outlet Bitcoin.com on July 3 (local time), a contract on Polymarket asking whether Bitcoin will reach $70,000 by the end of July traded at 21 cents. This implies an approximate 21% probability. Approximately $102,000 was staked on this price point. The total betting volume for the July Bitcoin price market is $1.16 million.

Investors believe a rebound itself is possible. The probability of reaching $62,500 is set at 92%. The probability for $65,000 is 63%. However, the probabilities for $67,500, $72,500, and $75,000 were only 39%, 11%, and 5%, respectively. The market trend indicates a focus on limited recovery rather than a complete trend reversal.

The contract condition is not based on the closing price at the end of the month. It is met if the 1-minute high on Binance's Bitcoin/USDT trading pair touches $70,000 even once between July 1 and July 31 at 11:59 PM. Despite these low-threshold conditions, four out of five people are betting on failure to reach $70,000.

Bitcoin spot ETF capital flows have revived. On the previous day, $221.7 million flowed net into US Bitcoin spot ETFs. This is the strongest daily inflow since early May. Previously, during the bearish period in late June, approximately $1.79 billion exited Bitcoin spot ETFs.

On-chain indicators are fueling caution. CryptoQuant pointed to an increase in exchange inflows this week. Analysis also suggested that whales are moving coins to exchanges. Bitcoin tested support near $60,000 this week. Approximately $8,244 remains until $70,000. An additional rise of around 13% is needed within approximately four weeks.

Variables that could change the probabilities also remain in July. Expectations for the US cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY) to pass the Senate could act as a regulatory positive. If Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows continue for a second consecutive week, the interpretation that the sell-off in late June was the bottom could also strengthen. However, current Polymarket prices show a willingness to bet on a recovery to $65,000 but remain cool towards breaking past $70,000.

[Article Key Summary]

-Polymarket investors have set the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 within July at 21%.

-The probability of reaching $65,000 is 63%, but the probability for $75,000 is only 5%.

-While $221.7 million flowed net into US Bitcoin spot ETFs, increased exchange inflows and whale movements were presented as signals to watch for volatility.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*