XRP (Ripple) Rises 17% on Average in Q3... Will 13 Years of Data Analysis Hit the Mark?

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XRP has once again followed its past pattern of rebounding in the third quarter after consecutive declines in the first and second quarters, bringing the possibility of recovering $1.20 to the forefront of the market.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media The Crypto Basic on July 3 (local time), XRP has not escaped the downtrend that began in October 2025, falling by 40.17% in 2026 alone. However, the media analyzed that since XRP began trading in the open market in 2013, a third-quarter rebound has followed years in which it declined in both the first and second quarters.

The first instance was in 2014. XRP plummeted by nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2014 and fell an additional 57% in the second quarter. Monthly figures showed -24.9% in January 2014, -33.62% in February, -35.73% in March, -38.95% in April, -22.53% in May, and -8.61% in June. Subsequently, in July 2014, it rose by 36.73%, from $0.00379 to $0.00519, and the third quarter ended with a 22.9% gain.

The same trend was repeated in the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. After hitting a high of $3.31 in January 2018, XRP plunged by 77.7% in the first quarter of 2018 and recorded -9.1% in the second quarter. However, a 73.6% surge in September 2018 offset the losses of July and August, turning the third-quarter return to 24.4%. In 2022, after declines of -2.14% in Q1 and -59.4% in Q2, it rebounded by 44.5% in Q3.

The trend in 2026 also aligns with past patterns. After a 35.4% plunge in Q4 2025, XRP declined by 27.1% in Q1 2026 and 22.4% in Q2. Following attempts at recovery in early July, the Q3 return stood at 6.05% at the time of reporting.

The Crypto Basic reported that XRP's average Q3 gain since 2013 is 17.3%. Out of 13 years, there were only three instances of Q3 declines, and the third quarter has historically been evaluated as the most consistent period for recovery. The media suggested that if XRP maintains its average gain of 17.3% this quarter, it could close Q3 above $1.20, but noted that the continuation of a Q4 rebound is not guaranteed.

[Article Key Summary]

-XRP declined by 27.1% in Q1 2026 and 22.4% in Q2, then rebounded by 6.05% in early Q3.

-In 2014, 2018, and 2022, a Q3 rebound occurred after consecutive declines in both Q1 and Q2.

-The Crypto Basic analyzed that if XRP maintains an average Q3 gain of 17.3%, it could close the quarter above $1.20.

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