Solana, $52 or $250... Direction Likely to be Decided Within 2-3 Weeks

▲ Solana (SOL) ©

An analysis suggests that Solana is at a crossroads of extreme scenarios, facing either a sharp drop to $52 or a surge to $250, all within a single price range.

According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on April 10 (local time), Solana (SOL) was trading around $85.37 and entered a price discovery phase after rebounding from the $78 support level. The current price is trapped between key support and resistance, and it is highly likely that its direction will be decided within the next 2-3 weeks.

Technically, Solana has been consolidating within a $76 to $92 range for two months. A warning sign is the repeated testing of the $76-$80 support level seven times, indicating that buying pressure is gradually being exhausted. Furthermore, if the failure to reclaim the 50-day simple moving average at $86 continues, an analysis suggests that a 'three-stage decline pattern,' which has occurred twice in the past, could repeat, leading to a drop to $52. Some bearish scenarios even anticipate a fall to $45.

On the other hand, the bullish arguments are also strong. The monthly number of token holders reached an all-time high of 167 million, and a single day's trading volume surged by 182% to $11.5 billion, confirming an inflow of spot buying. Standard Chartered has set a year-end target price of $250, citing ultra-fast settlement performance of around 150 milliseconds due to the Alpenglow upgrade and increased institutional adoption as key reasons.

However, institutional flows are mixed. Solana spot ETFs experienced the largest single-day outflow of funds since their launch, and in the options market, the put-to-call ratio exceeded 2.0, indicating a significant increase in demand for downside hedging. Concurrently, futures open interest stands at $5 billion, a 45% decrease compared to January, suggesting limited leverage-based upward momentum.

Ultimately, the market's watershed is $86. If this price level is broken on a daily closing basis, an upward path to $90, $100, and $120 opens up. However, if it encounters resistance again, the $52 downside scenario could become a reality. The media characterizes the current phase as a 'wait-and-see period,' advising that entering after confirming a breakthrough of $86 would be a more advantageous strategy.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*