XRP, 2021 Deja Vu…Will there be another big fluctuation this time?

▲ XRP, Silver/ChatGPT generated image ©

As XRP (Ripple) shows its quietest trend since 2021, analysis suggests that the market has entered a 'calm before the storm' phase, awaiting a directional decision.

According to the crypto news outlet Bitcoinist on April 11 (local time), as XRP continues to trade sideways, maintaining the $1.30 level, on-chain data from Binance shows that both 30-day cumulative accumulation and distribution have simultaneously fallen to their lowest levels since 2021.

Currently, the accumulated volume is approximately 2.06 billion XRP, and the distributed volume is approximately 2.09 billion XRP, resulting in a net flow of approximately -36 million XRP, indicating a slight selling dominance. This structure, where selling slightly outweighs buying amidst a contraction in both, is interpreted as being close to a 'stalled state' where market participation itself has significantly decreased.

This simultaneous decrease on both sides is considered a characteristic of a transitional phase, not just a simple bearish trend. Indeed, after a similar slowdown in activity in 2021, XRP showed price movements accompanied by significant volatility. Analysis suggests that the market is currently taking a breather before deciding on a direction, and there's a high probability of a rapid trend reversal if a new catalyst emerges.

Technically, the bearish structure persists. XRP is trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating continued overhead resistance, and trading volume has been declining since the sharp drop in February, with no strong accumulation signals identified. The current price shows a compressed movement around the $1.30 mark, failing to indicate a clear direction.

Key inflection points are $1.30, $1.25, and the upper resistance at $1.50. A break below $1.25 increases the likelihood of accelerated decline, while conversely, a breakthrough above $1.50 would be interpreted as a trend reversal signal. The market remains in a 'waiting state' rather than a recovery, and the next move is expected to be sharply determined by a catalyst.

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