Bitcoin, Short-Term Rebound Not to Be Trusted...Benjamin Cowen Warns of "October Crash"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) is encountering strong resistance near its previous high, showing signs of a massive downward wave that could cause retail investors to panic.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, analyzed in a video released on his YouTube channel on April 10 (local time) that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture near the bear market resistance band. Cowen explained that the resistance level formed by the 20-week simple moving average at $78,500 and the 21-week exponential moving average at $78,900 is acting as a strong barrier preventing further upside. In past bear markets, Bitcoin has often faced setbacks and price corrections in this range after multi-month rallies.

The current market situation shows patterns very similar to the bear cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022, requiring a cautious attitude not to be fooled by short-term rebounds. Entering 2026, Bitcoin has clearly shown seasonal similarities, hitting a low in February, forming a high in March, and then showing weakness in early April. Cowen warned, "Statistically, there is a 70% to 75% chance that Bitcoin will retest the bottom or fall to lower prices in the coming months, rather than the current low being the true bottom."

From a macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin's future trajectory is expected to be closely linked to the stock market's potential correction. There is a high risk that Bitcoin will also decline if the S&P 500 index fails to break its highs and turns downwards. The current economic environment clearly exhibits characteristics of the late stage of a business cycle, where the market tests its last highs before a recession, similar to the dot-com bubble in 2000 or just before the 2008 financial crisis.

Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) also suggest that the market bottom has not yet been confirmed. Bitcoin's daily RSI has consistently formed lower highs, indicating weakening buying pressure. Historically, the true market bottom was formed when Bitcoin's price fell below its realized price and balanced price, but it has not yet reached those levels.

The flow of funds within the asset market also points to Bitcoin's relative weakness and the decline of altcoins. In the mid-stage of a bear market, risk aversion intensifies, leading to a shift of funds from altcoins to Bitcoin, and then from Bitcoin to stocks and gold. In fact, while Bitcoin recovered to $71,000, the total market capitalization of altcoins barely moved. Therefore, Cowen suggested that a conservative strategy is needed to prepare for the bearish windows expected in June, August, and October.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*