[Weekly Outlook - New York Stock Market] US-Iran 'Marathon Negotiations' Conclusion... Earnings Season Begins

US Vice President Vance (left) and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

The New York stock market this week (April 13-April 17, US Eastern Time) is expected to be influenced by the outcome of negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The United States and Iran began negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan on the 11th. This is the first face-to-face negotiation in 42 days since the war broke out on February 28. The US delegation is led by Vice President JD Vance, and the Iranian delegation is led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament (Majlis).

The negotiations, which began around 5:30 PM Pakistan time, continued past midnight. According to IRNA, Iran's state news agency, they are exchanging demands under Pakistan's mediation. The White House announced that the US, Iran, and Pakistan are still conducting trilateral face-to-face negotiations.

According to reports from the British media Financial Times (FT) and Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, the United States and Iran are struggling over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tasnim News Agency reported that "the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key points of contention."

If the US and Iran reach an agreement, the stock market could experience upward pressure, coupled with a drop in international oil prices. There is also a possibility of failure. An announcement might be made to the effect that 'dialogue will continue' without a clear agreement being reached.

US President Donald Trump said that while he was in deep negotiations with Iran, "whether we agree or not, it makes no difference to me. Because we have won."

Investors should also consider the relationship between Israel and Lebanon, which is an obstacle to an agreement between the United States and Iran. Iran has emphasized that a ceasefire should be achieved on all fronts. However, Israel continues its airstrikes even ahead of face-to-face negotiations with Lebanon on the 14th.

Strait of Hormuz

Key economic indicators include the March Producer Price Index (PPI), which will be released on the 14th of this month. This is considered an indicator of future US inflation as wholesale prices. The consensus is a 1.2% increase compared to the previous month.

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, which will be released the next day (15th), is also a publication to keep an eye on. This is a document that Chairman Jerome Powell also makes sure to review, and investors can use it to grasp the overall economic situation in the United States.

The New York stock market enters its earnings season starting this week.

Earnings reports from major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs (13th), Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock (14th), Morgan Stanley, Bank of America (15th), Bank of New York Mellon (16th), and State Street (17th) are scheduled. Netflix will release its earnings on the 16th.

John Belton, portfolio manager of Gabelli Growth Innovator ETF, said, "This earnings season will be the first opportunity to check how the current energy shock and geopolitical conflicts have affected corporate fundamentals through the actual voices of companies."

He predicted, "If the view that the impact is limited is confirmed, and at the same time, visibility for the end of the conflict is secured, there is no reason why the stock market cannot return to its previous upward trend."

Remarks from key Fed officials are also largely scheduled.

Federal Reserve Board Governors Stephen Myron (13th, 16th) and Michael Barr (14th, 15th), Boston Fed President Susan Collins (14th), Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (14th, 17th), Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (14th), Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (14th), Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman (15th), New York Fed President John Williams (16th), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (17th), and Fed Governor Christopher Waller (17th) are scheduled to appear publicly.

Remarks from market-influential figures such as New York Fed President Williams and Governor Waller are expected to draw investors' attention.

Wall Street

◇Key Schedule and Speeches

- April 13th

March Existing Home Sales

Speech by Stephen Myron, Governor of the Federal Reserve (Fed)

Corporate Earnings: Goldman Sachs

- April 14th

Israel-Lebanon Negotiations

March National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Business Optimism Index

March Producer Price Index (PPI)

ADP Weekly Private Payrolls (4-week moving average)

Speech by Michael Barr, Governor of the Federal Reserve

Speech by Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (Fed)

Speech by Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed

Speech by Anna Paulson, President of the Philadelphia Fed

Speech by Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed

Corporate Earnings: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, BlackRock

- April 15th

March Import/Export Prices

April New York Empire State Manufacturing Index

April National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index

Fed Beige Book

Speech by Michelle Bowman, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision

Speech by Michael Barr, Governor of the Federal Reserve

Corporate Earnings: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, PNC Financial Services Group, Progressive, M&T Bank

- April 16th

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

March Industrial and Manufacturing Production

Speech by John Williams, President of the New York Fed

Speech by Stephen Myron, Governor of the Federal Reserve

Corporate Earnings: Netflix, Travelers, U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), Charles Schwab, Citizens Financial Group

- April 17th

Speech by Christopher Waller, Governor of the Federal Reserve

Speech by Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed

Speech by Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed

Corporate Earnings: State Street, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, Truist Financial