Upbit's Order Book Halted: Will Bitcoin Plummet if US-Iran Negotiations Fail?

▲ Upbit Market Conditions: Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Wait-and-see market amidst US-Iran peace talks /AI generated image ©

As the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran resumed without narrowing their differences, the virtual asset market entered an intense wait-and-see phase over the weekend. Amid a sharp drop in trading volume on Upbit, Korea's largest exchange, major coins such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP (Ripple), and Solana (SOL) are all holding their breath, failing to find a clear direction.

As of 9:46 AM on April 12, according to Upbit, Bitcoin was trading at 108,610,000 KRW, a slight increase of 0.04% compared to the previous day. Ethereum recorded 3,391,000 KRW, down 0.03%, XRP fell 0.05% to 2,013 KRW, and Solana rose 0.08% to 126,200 KRW, with most coins showing a strong sideways trend with fluctuation rates in the 0% range. The Upbit Composite Index, which reflects the overall market trend, also rose by only 0.03%, representing frozen investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko, a virtual asset market data aggregator, also showed Upbit's 24-hour trading volume plummeting by 26.6% compared to the previous day, revealing the true nature of a wait-and-see market where funds have drained like an ebb tide.

The decisive reason why the market lost its vitality and froze is that the overnight marathon negotiations between the United States and Iran, which concluded in the early hours of the 12th, failed to reach a clear conclusion. In the 14-hour tripartite face-to-face meeting, mediated by Pakistan, working teams from both sides exchanged documents and engaged in intense discussions but only confirmed significant differences in key issues such as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanese ceasefire.

Escalating military tensions outside the negotiation venue are also fueling investor anxiety. While the talks were underway, the US Central Command deployed two guided-missile destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz under the pretext of mine clearance, prompting Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to warn of a strong military response, triggering the fuse of armed conflict. Amidst this precarious situation, a mixture of peace expectations and fears of escalation, coupled with the typical weekend liquidity crunch, market participants are refraining from hasty trading and focusing on securing cash.

The future of the virtual asset market hinges entirely on the outcome of further negotiations between the two countries, which are set to resume on the 12th. Experts predict that if the United States and Iran overcome their differences and reach a dramatic agreement, suppressed liquidity will flood in, leading to a strong upward rally where Bitcoin breaks the 110,000,000 KRW mark. Conversely, if negotiations ultimately fail and physical clashes over the Strait of Hormuz materialize, risk aversion sentiment could reach its peak, leading to a sharp market downturn with massive sell-offs due to disappointment, thus requiring more careful risk management than ever before.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*