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▲Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, sensitive to the outcome of US-Iran negotiations. AI generated image ©
The virtual asset market continues its bullish trend amidst heightened tension, keenly watching the outcome of the ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the United States. The market rally, which has lasted for a week, was driven by the easing of concerns about military conflict between the two countries. Major economic indicators to be announced with the opening of the New York stock market this week are expected to be key variables determining the direction of cryptocurrencies.
According to CoinMarketCap data at 7:20 AM KST on April 12, Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of its previous day's consolidation, surpassing $73,500 and demonstrating strong buying momentum. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest by market capitalization, also easily crossed the $2,300 mark, matching Bitcoin's upward stride. Looking at weekly cumulative returns, Bitcoin and Ethereum both recorded double-digit gains of over 9% and 11% respectively, and major altcoins such as XRP (Ripple) also showed an overall upward trajectory, confirming a positive market sentiment.
The biggest factor driving the virtual asset market heatedly over the past week is the easing of geopolitical risks between the United States and Iran. As the tripartite negotiations, which began on the 11th with Pakistan's mediation, progressed deeply, the market's relief that the worst-case scenario could be avoided stimulated investment sentiment in risk assets. Although the tense tug-of-war between the two countries over control of the Strait of Hormuz continues, the emphasis on diplomatic solutions rather than catastrophe is believed to have led to a significant inflow of previously frozen funds.
However, this week, the virtual asset market must navigate not only variables in the Middle East but also a series of hurdles, including major US macroeconomic indicators and corporate earnings. In particular, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March, to be announced on the 14th, will serve as an important gauge for the future direction of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy. If it surpasses the market's forecast of a 1.2% month-over-month increase, inflation concerns could reignite, potentially leading to a short-term correction in the virtual asset market.
Additionally, the Fed's Beige Book and statements from key figures, to be released on the 15th, could also act as triggers for increased market volatility. If hawkish remarks continue from influential figures such as New York Fed President John Williams, there is a possibility that investor sentiment could temporarily contract. Furthermore, the Q1 earnings announcements from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, which begin in earnest this week, will be a critical turning point that could either alleviate or amplify market concerns about macroeconomic fundamentals.
Ultimately, the direction of the virtual asset market this week will depend on whether the economic indicators released can sustain expectations for a shift in the Fed's monetary policy, and whether the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations yield tangible results to resolve geopolitical risks. If a positive scenario materializes, Bitcoin is expected to resume a strong rally towards breaking its previous highs, but if mixed signals emerge, it is anticipated to undergo a period of intense wait-and-see behavior and absorption of selling pressure for a while.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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