Is Bitcoin's Real Bottom $41,400? What Past Patterns Tell Us About the Timing of the Crash

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Historical market cycle analysis suggesting that Bitcoin will form a deep bottom, falling to $41,400 before entering a true bull market, has garnered investors' attention.

According to Bitcoinist, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 12 (local time), virtual asset analyst Philarekt specifically presented the final bottom timing and price target based on a chart comparing Bitcoin (BTC)'s past market cycles. He diagnosed that, contrary to the prevailing market belief that the current level around $60,000 is the final bottom of this cycle, a deeper downward phase still remains.

According to Philarekt's cycle, Bitcoin's bull phase begins immediately after confirming the final bottom, lasting approximately 1450 days, before transitioning into a new bear market. Indeed, in the 2013 cycle, after peaking around $1,100 and plummeting by 87%, a bottom was formed within 365 days, and the 2017 cycle also saw a drop of over 85% from its peak near $19,000, establishing a bottom 365 days later in 2018.

This structural pattern was observed identically in the 2021 cycle. At that time, Bitcoin surpassed $69,000, setting an all-time high (ATH), then fell by over 79% to its 2022 bottom. Based on this historical repetitiveness, the analyst concluded that the peak of the current cycle has already passed, and it will now move towards its final bottom within the same 365-day timeline as in the past.

Analyst Philarekt defined the $126,000 rally recorded on October 6, 2025, as the final peak of this cycle. Bitcoin, currently trading around $72,500, has fallen by over 42% from its peak and is consolidating within a broad downtrend. If this model is fully applied, a further drop of approximately 64% from the peak of $126,000 would place the true price floor for this cycle at $41,400.

Regarding the timing of reaching this point, as of April 11, 2026, Bitcoin has been in a bear market decline for 187 days, with only 178 days remaining until Philarekt's projected bottom. This suggests that around early October 2026, Bitcoin could hit the $41,400 bottom, completely reset the market, and transition into the next major upward cycle.

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