"Golden Cross Appears"...XRP Faces Crossroads: Rebound Signal or 'Fake Surge'?

▲ XRP

XRP has completed a golden cross on its short-term chart, setting the stage for a price rebound, but it now faces a critical test to determine its authenticity amid cautious market observation.

Crypto media outlet U.Today reported on April 12 (local time) that a golden cross occurred on XRP's 2-hour chart, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. The completion of this technical indicator appeared at a time when XRP's price entered a stabilization phase after reaching a high of $1.396 at the beginning of the week. Experts are closely watching whether this signal will be the precursor to a full-fledged price increase or merely a temporary fakeout.

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, XRP investors' sentiment is currently extremely subdued. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for active wallets over the past year recorded an average of -41%, indicating that the asset's value is significantly undervalued. This is the lowest level since the FTX exchange bankruptcy in November 2022, suggesting that the majority of investors are in a loss-making position.

Technically, the 50-day moving average, formed around the $1.38 level, is acting as strong resistance. XRP's price has been trapped in a box range since late March, unable to break through this level and facing strong selling pressure from bearish forces. If XRP fails to decisively break past $1.38 and even gives up the short-term support level of $1.29, this golden cross is highly likely to be merely a temporary rebound within a downtrend.

Positive signals are being observed in the influx of funds from institutional investors. As of April 10, approximately $9.09 million in net inflows entered XRP spot ETFs, marking the largest volume since early February. Although trading activity in both spot and futures markets has slowed compared to before, the consistent inflow of institutional funds is becoming a key driver supporting the price floor. Investors appear to be simultaneously monitoring the sustainability of liquidity provision and whether major resistance levels are broken.

Ultimately, XRP stands at a critical juncture where technical bullish signals coincide with an undervalued phase in on-chain indicators. There is anticipation that this golden cross could be a decisive turning point, not just a simple technical rebound, but one that ends the long-term downtrend. However, attempts to break out without accompanying trading volume could collapse again due to short-term profit-taking, thus requiring a cautious approach that monitors real-time transaction data and overall market sentiment changes.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*