Bitcoin, $60,000 is not the end... Benjamin Cowen: "It will go down to the $30,000s"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may undergo a painful bottom confirmation process, falling further to the $30,000 range before re-breaking its previous high.

Veteran trader Benjamin Cowen stated in an interview with The Wolf Of All Streets on April 12 (local time) that the current Bitcoin market is beyond a simple correction and is in an extended bear market cycle. He assessed the likelihood of a bottom already being formed in this cycle as low, around 25%, and predicted that maintaining the $60,000 support level would not be easy. He explained that a solid support base needs to be formed by falling to the $30,000-$50,000 range, similar to 2018 and 2019, to generate the next upward momentum.

The market structure also supports a bearish trend. Cowen analyzed that the current price shows a typical bear market pattern where it temporarily rebounds before falling more sharply. He believes there's a high probability that a 'period of indifference,' where investor interest rapidly declines, will continue for the next 6 to 8 months. He emphasized that a bottom will only be confirmed when the supply of profitable zones in the market value to realized value metric is sufficiently cleared.

He maintained a skeptical view on the altcoin market. Cowen characterized altcoins as having a speculative structure rather than generating real value, pointing out that the phenomenon of funds not spreading to altcoins and falling together with Bitcoin after it records a high is similar to 2019. He predicted that Bitcoin's market dominance will strengthen until a new market narrative emerges, given that many altcoins are experiencing a decline in value relative to Bitcoin.

The macro environment is also acting as a burden. Rising oil prices are historically interpreted as a recession signal appearing in the latter half of the economic cycle. Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also limited due to policy uncertainty from the Donald Trump administration and inflationary pressures. Cowen advised adjusting the proportion of risky assets and diversifying investments into assets such as energy and metals in this environment.

Cowen suggested the timeframe for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high between 2027 and 2029. He analyzed that the time-based capitulation process that will follow the breakdown of $60,000 is an essential stage for the market. He emphasized that investors should maintain a strategy that considers long-term cycles rather than short-term rebound expectations, and that a longer-term price re-evaluation will occur than in the past due to increasing market maturity.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*