Is the $75,000 flash rally a trick? Is the 'final flush' coming, with Bitcoin plummeting to $50,000?

▲ Bitcoin Crash ©CoinReaders

Despite a temporary market rebound driven by expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, chilling warnings from experts continue to emerge, suggesting that a final sell-off, dubbed the 'final flush,' will hit, sending the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) plummeting to $50,000 before a full-fledged bull market transition.

According to the investment media FXStreet on April 14 (local time), numerous cryptocurrency analysts diagnosed that the recent price recovery is very minor compared to the broad downtrend, and the true bottom has not yet arrived. Famous trader Ivan Liljeqvist pointed out that $60,000 is by no means the bottom, and the strong upward momentum seen in past bull markets is completely absent from the current market.

Analyst Merlin Enkelar warned that Bitcoin is preparing to enter the second bear market phase after an accumulation period, and prices could be pushed down to $50,000 through a manipulation phase where artificial market control by powerful players is at play, before moving into a distribution phase. Another analyst, Symbiote, also viewed it as an extremely bearish market from a macroeconomic perspective, predicting a massive final plunge towards $59,000 or $50,000 is imminent, and analyst Zel added that a bearish flag chart pattern, hinting at further declines, is currently effectively in play.

Even though Bitcoin rallied to just shy of $75,000 intraday on expectations of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, experts' pessimism shows no sign of abating. Nick Lux, director of LVRG Research, analyzed that a drop to the $50,000 level would be the last key accumulation zone before a sustained recovery, signifying a healthy cycle reset amidst macroeconomic pressures and weakening capital circulation.

However, he explained that given the current unique macroeconomic market structure with the influx of large institutional investors, there is a high probability that an extreme crash like those in the past will not occur. While previous cycles saw terrible declines of 82% after the 2017 peak, which was driven by speculative capital from retail investors, and 77% after the 2021 all-time high, this cycle might not even reach a theoretical 60% decline.

Indeed, Fidelity Digital Assets assessed in a report earlier this month that the downside risk in the cryptocurrency market for 2026 has significantly eased compared to past cycles. Ultimately, whether the final sell-off will drag the market down to $50,000 to set the stage for an explosive rebound, or whether sustained buying pressure from institutions will build a defense line at current levels, will be the key variable determining the timing of the future major bull market.

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