Ethereum, Is the Rebound Over? Can It Break Past $2,388 Resistance?

▲ Ethereum (ETH)/AI-generated image ©

Ethereum has succeeded in rebounding, but is once again facing selling pressure at a key resistance zone, raising the possibility that the uptrend could shift into a 'distribution phase'.

According to investment media FXStreet on April 14 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) recovered $2,400 during the day, reaching its highest level since February 1, but then its upward momentum slowed, pushing it back down to the early $2,300s. While expectations of negotiations between the US and Iran stimulated risk asset preference, geopolitical variables such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are still increasing market volatility.

The current price is approximately $2,310, trading near the realized price of $2,308, which is the average purchase price based on on-chain data. This zone has historically acted as a resistance line in weak uptrends and is interpreted as a 'distribution zone' where investors sell at their break-even point. However, if geopolitical tensions ease, there is also a possibility that this zone could turn into a support line.

In terms of supply and demand, the sentiment of US investors is improving. The Coinbase Premium Index has remained above 0 in recent days, indicating a buying advantage within the US, and spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, with $9.4 million flowing in. In contrast, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $291 million, showing a contrasting trend.

However, warning signs are being detected in the derivatives market. The funding rate has turned negative again, suggesting that market participants are betting on a decline. In fact, after breaking above $2,400, the price quickly fell below $2,320, confirming the strength of the overhead resistance.

Technically, $2,388 is acting as a key resistance level. This zone overlaps with the 100-day exponential moving average at $2,376, strengthening the resistance. If this level is broken on a daily closing basis, there is room for an ascent to $2,746 and then to $3,412. Conversely, if the support line at $2,211 collapses, there is a possibility of a decline to $2,108 and $1,909. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains upward momentum around 60, but signs of entering an overbought zone are also appearing, simultaneously raising the possibility of a short-term correction.

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