XRP Secures 44 Million Real-World Users, Will It Break Through the Fateful $1.45 Resistance and Soar?

▲ Rakuten, XRP/AI Generated Image ©

XRP (Ripple), which had plummeted by more than half from its 52-week high and fallen into a long slump, is now breaking out of its downtrend channel after 32 weeks, leveraging the adoption of Rakuten Pay in Japan, which boasts 44 million massive real-world users, thereby initiating a major uptrend.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on April 16 (local time), XRP has been experiencing a short-term rally, breaking past $1.41 over the past two days, driven by news of its integration into Rakuten Pay, a giant e-commerce company in Japan. This positive development signifies XRP's entry into a real payment ecosystem with 44 million active Japanese users, moving beyond being merely a speculative asset, and serves as a powerful signal of real-world adoption, akin to a welcome rain in a drought, especially after a 61% drop from its peak.

The technical structure of the chart has also made a positive turnaround. A breakout from the monthly downtrend channel, which lasted for 32 weeks, is imminent, and on the daily chart, a rounded bottom pattern has formed, confirming a bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Furthermore, the deposit volume from whales in units of 1 million, which had flowed into exchanges in large quantities on the 11th, exerting downward pressure, has sharply decreased, indicating that selling pressure has been exhausted. This was a crucial factor in successfully defending the short-term support level of $1.33.

However, for a sustained uptrend, XRP must break through the critical $1.45 resistance level, where 60% of the total circulating supply is accumulated as sell-side liquidity, and this must be accompanied by significant trading volume. If the current 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of $1.41 is maintained, it could first target $1.61, and with continuous positive news, a mathematical basis is established to aim for $1.92, and even the annual target price of $2.80 suggested by global investment bank Standard Chartered.

The biggest variable that will determine the direction of this rally is the passage of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, which is in the hands of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. If the bill's processing is delayed, or if fundamental limitations pointed out by bears, such as sluggish transaction volume as a bridge currency and spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) assets under management of only $1 billion, are highlighted, a pessimistic scenario where it could fall to $1 by year-end also coexists.

Consequently, the current $1.41 range presents an attractive speculative buying opportunity, combining a clear real-world use case with Rakuten and a bullish chart reversal. However, a strategic approach is more crucial than ever, strictly setting $1.30 as a stop-loss considering legislative delay risks, and aiming for profit realization above $1.61 depending on whether regulatory clarity is achieved.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*