NASDAQ hits all-time highs every day, but when will the Bitcoin rally begin?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), NASDAQ / ChatGPT generated image ©

The US stock market is heating up, breaking all-time highs day after day, but the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), seems to be left out, moving sideways repeatedly, causing anxiety among investors. Has the virtual asset market missed the last train of this rally, or is it just pausing for a bigger leap?

According to crypto media outlet Bitcoinist on April 18 (local time), XWIN Research Japan recently analyzed Bitcoin's failure to join the stock market rally from the perspective of overall market liquidity flows. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are breaking all-time highs, seemingly creating a perfect bull market, Bitcoin remains approximately 40% below its previous peak, and Ethereum (ETH) has plummeted by 52%.

The report pointed out that this stark decoupling does not signify a full-scale return of global capital to risk assets, but rather a 'selective price readjustment' by the stock market in response to specific issues. The current stock market surge is not due to fundamental macroeconomic improvements like inflation suppression or interest rate cuts, but rather has a strong character of a relief rally following the alleviation of so-called 'tail risks' such as easing geopolitical tensions and reduced fear of energy shocks.

Capital follows a consistent cyclical pattern, flowing from commodities to the dollar and interest rates, then to stocks, and finally to lagging assets like Bitcoin. The report emphasized that current liquidity is concentrated in the stock market, and the virtual asset market is simply waiting patiently for funds to flow in; this is merely a difference in sequence, not a structural flaw or failure.

Indeed, contrary to the apparent price stagnation, on-chain data hints at a massive explosion. Bitcoin holdings on exchanges are continuously decreasing, showing strong signs of accumulation, and technically, a solid support base between $72,500 and $75,000 has been established since the sharp drop in early February. In other words, the groundwork for a price increase, the so-called 'eve of a breakthrough,' is steadily progressing.

According to chart analysis, Bitcoin has broken above the upper boundary of its trading range, showing a buying advantage, but it faces strong resistance from the downtrending 100-day moving average. While the 50-day moving average, indicating short-term momentum, is rising, the 200-day moving average, which shows the broader trend, remains high, meaning a complete trend reversal has not yet occurred. Ultimately, whether it firmly settles above $75,000 or falls back into the trading range will be the critical turning point that signals future capital inflow.

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