Virtual Assets: October Bottom Theory Emerges... 'Downtrend Continues Without Sell-off'

▲ Bear market

It has been argued that the virtual asset market is likely to form its lowest point around October 2026, following Bitcoin (BTC)'s 4-year cycle.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen diagnosed in an interview with crypto media BeInCrypto on April 18 (local time) that Bitcoin will hit its bottom in October 2026, one year after reaching its peak, similar to past cycles. Cowen stated, "The current market is not deviating from the typical return range of a midterm election year," adding, "A gradual downtrend will continue until the second half of the year unless a sharp price sell-off occurs."

Cowen noted that this cycle formed its peak amidst public indifference, not enthusiasm. Analysis of social indicators such as Google Trends shows that public interest in virtual assets has continuously declined since 2021. Cowen said, "Unlike 2017 or 2021, this peak originated from indifference." Cowen explained that because there was no public enthusiasm, the so-called 'alt season,' where funds flow into altcoins after Bitcoin's rise, did not occur.

The macroeconomic environment was also identified as a key variable limiting the performance of the virtual asset market. Bitcoin cannot be independent of inflation, unemployment rates, and the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Cowen assessed that the current period is in the latter half of the business cycle and shows a similar trend to the quantitative tightening period of 2019. Returns on risky assets are likely to fall below expectations as macroeconomic uncertainties remain unresolved.

A more sober assessment was given for the altcoin market. It is argued that in the long term, the value of most altcoins converges to 0 compared to Bitcoin. Cowen emphasized that in a long-term frame of 5 to 10 years, altcoins show a clear tendency to underperform Bitcoin's returns. Cowen asserted, "Bitcoin is the only asset with long-term holding value, and the rest of the altcoins are merely in the realm of short-term trading."

Cowen advised investors not to be swayed by optimism tied to financial interests. While many influencers advocate for a rise for reasons such as securing allocations, objective data points to a different reality. The fact that those who simply held Bitcoin steadily over the past decade accumulated the greatest wealth proves this. Discipline and patience in adhering to investment principles are the only way to survive a bear market.