"If it breaks $2,400, it's over"...Ethereum 'hesitates' at final resistance despite bottom signals

▲ Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to break above $2,400 but has failed to establish a clear close above this level, standing at a critical juncture. While the overall market is showing signs of gradual improvement, price movements remain cautious.

According to Bitcoinist, Ethereum is showing gradual recovery signals even as it has not fully emerged from the aftermath of the Q1 2026 correction. Notably, data changes appearing below the price have started to become apparent. According to Arab Chain analysis, Ethereum's Sharpe ratio on Binance has risen to approximately 0.07, entering positive territory. While the numerical value itself is not large, the shift in direction is considered key.

The Sharpe ratio had remained in negative territory for several months recently. Especially during the period when the market was significantly volatile in February, investors were taking on high volatility without achieving sufficient returns. The situation has now changed. The 30-day average return has succeeded in turning positive, albeit slightly, at approximately 0.0027. Volatility remains high, limiting the pace of indicator improvement, but the overall trend has shifted towards recovery.

Such changes are also confirmed in terms of market structure. Ethereum has stabilized its price in the approximately $2,300 range, showing a normalization of its risk-to-reward structure. Analysis suggests that an environment where accumulated profits are maintained is forming, moving away from a period where volatility overshadowed returns. This is interpreted as a process of building a sustainable upward foundation, not just a short-term rebound.

However, the current Sharpe ratio of 0.07 is far from indicating a strong bull market. It is considered insufficient to suggest an entry into an aggressive upward phase, and further indicator improvement is needed for it to lead to a full-fledged bullish signal.

Important zones are also identified in the technical trend. After falling sharply to approximately $1,800 during the early February decline, Ethereum has formed a recovery structure by raising its lows. Selling pressure has weakened, and buying interest has gradually flowed in.

The current price is moving in the $2,300 to $2,400 range. This zone acts as a key resistance area, overlapping with the 100-day moving average. There have been several attempts to break through, but a clear upward breakout has not yet been confirmed. On the other hand, the 50-day moving average has turned upwards, supporting the short-term trend, while the 200-day moving average remains above, maintaining a medium-to-long-term downtrend structure.

Trading volume surged during the February plunge and has since returned to stable levels. This is interpreted as a signal that the current upward trend is forming through a gradual accumulation process rather than a fear-driven rebound.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*