End of a Long Ice Age? Altcoins Recover $90 Billion, Will a Real Bull Market Begin?

▲ Cryptocurrency ©Da-sol Go

Despite the altcoin market escaping a long period of stagnation and achieving a dramatic $90 billion recovery within an excessively bloated ecosystem, a fierce competition for survival is unfolding among tens of millions of coins vying for limited capital, leading to a thorough weeding-out phase.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on April 21 (local time), virtual asset analyst Darkfost diagnosed that a significant recovery has recently been observed in the altcoin market after the collapse it experienced since its peak in October 2025. The Total 3 index, which represents the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins, suffered a massive crash with $460 billion (approximately 38%) evaporating from its peak. However, since February, it has recovered $90 billion amidst macroeconomic pressures, igniting the spark of a rebound.

This recovery is also confirmed by specific technical indicators. Among altcoins listed on the global exchange Binance, the percentage of coins trading below the weekly 50-week moving average, a key baseline distinguishing technical stagnation and recovery, reached 89% in early February but has now fallen to 67%. This is a 22 percentage point improvement, suggesting that a widespread sell-off is subsiding and selective buying is entering the market, indicating a real internal change.

However, despite the inflow of $90 billion in recovery funds, the rebound felt by individual investors is minimal due to the ecosystem's abnormal expansion. Currently, there are approximately 49 million cryptocurrencies in the virtual asset market, with 22 million on the Solana (SOL) network, 19 million on Base, and 5 million on the BNB Smart Chain. As limited liquidity is fragmented into 49 million assets, the average altcoin's share is virtually zero, resulting in a fierce survival game.

From a structural perspective, the market is still treading a precarious tightrope. The altcoin market capitalization, excluding the top 10 assets, has bottomed out around $180 billion after several months of decline, but it remains trapped below the 200-week moving average, a macroeconomic resistance line that is still trending downwards. Historically, a true altcoin bull market has only materialized when it decisively breaks above this 200-week moving average and establishes it as support.

The recent noticeable decrease in trading volume also indicates that the current rebound is a fragile structure attributable more to reduced selling pressure than to strong buying interest. The outlet pointed out that for the market to confirm a full-fledged bullish reversal, it is essential to break out of the tedious consolidation phase between $170 billion and $220 billion and then decisively break through and settle above the resistance zone of $220 billion to $240 billion.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*