Bitcoin Rises Ahead of US-Iran Negotiations…Market Reflects Optimism

▲ US Vice President Vance boarding a private jet after the first peace talks with Iran

Even as Middle East risks escalate, Bitcoin maintains the 76,000 dollar level, signaling that the market is developing 'war resilience'.

According to CoinMarketCap data as of 4:28 PM KST on April 21, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $76,196, up 1.24% over 24 hours. At the same time, Ethereum (ETH) is continuing its upward trend at $2,320, and XRP (Ripple) at $1.43, while Solana (SOL) also maintains a strong performance at $85.79.

The key background for this upward trend is the anticipation of a second round of peace talks between the United States and Iran. There is a high possibility that the two countries will resume negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 22nd, and the market is reflecting the possibility of a dramatic agreement just before the ceasefire deadline ends. However, as both sides continue to make strong statements, negotiation uncertainty remains high.

Market analysis suggests that this structure of 'negotiation anticipation amid tension' is actually having a positive effect on cryptocurrencies. Indeed, while traditional stock markets showed mixed trends, the cryptocurrency market maintained a relatively strong performance. This is interpreted as either geopolitical risks having already been largely factored into prices, or some risk-averse funds flowing into digital assets.

Support is also observed in terms of on-chain data and supply-demand dynamics. According to CoinMarketCap, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 1.66% to approximately $2.56 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index recovered to a neutral zone of 55. However, the Altcoin Season Index remains at 38, indicating that a full-fledged altcoin rally has not yet spread.

The key factors going forward are the negotiation outcome and oil price trends. If an agreement is reached, risk asset preference will strengthen, and Bitcoin is expected to attempt to re-break $78,000. Conversely, if negotiations fail, the Strait of Hormuz risk will re-emerge, and increased short-term volatility cannot be ruled out. The market appears to have entered a phase where it is front-running 'results rather than war risks'.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*